China's Local and National Fertility Policies at the End of the Twentieth Century

In this article we survey variations in Chinas fertility policy as of the late 1990s in an attempt to describe local policy and the implications of the aggregation of local policies for national policy. Following a brief discussion of the politics of population policymaking in contemporary China we summarize fertility policy regulations within Chinas provinces. Our survey illustrates the intricacies and complexities of the population control process in China and serves as a background for our detailed analysis of the policy-stipulated fertility level in China based on local fertility policies. Using data collected on fertility policy for 420 prefecture-level units in China the administrative level below the province we estimate fertility levels that would obtain locally if all married couples had births at the levels permitted by local policy. Chinese birth control officials term this fertility level as "policy fertility" (zhengce shengyulu). We compute the average provincial and national policy fertility levels implied by policy fertility at the prefecture level and map the geographic and demographic distributions of policy fertility in China. This policy fertility level is a quantitative summary of Chinas current fertility policy informing what is pursued in terms of population control nationally on the basis of diverse local policies. Policy fertility serves as a reference for evaluating Chinas fertility policy implementation and as a starting point in evaluating the necessity and feasibility of continuing Chinas current fertility policy. (excerpt)

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