Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios for Aviation Derived from IPCC Storylines: A Meta-Analysis

This research summarises the aviation CO2 emissions studies that use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IS92 and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios storylines as GDP growth assumptions to estimate future global carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector. The inter-quartile mean and the first and third quartiles are calculated to enable researches studying climate change policies for aviation to use an average global baseline scenario with lower and upper boundaries. We also perform a simple meta-analysis to analyse the assumptions used to derive the baseline scenario and conclude, as expected, that change in revenue-tonne-kilometres and fuel-efficiency are the main drivers behind the baseline scenarios.

[1]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 1992 : the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment , 1992 .

[2]  W. W. Muir,et al.  Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity , 1980 .

[3]  David S. Lee,et al.  Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050. , 2010, Environmental science & technology.

[4]  Peter Nijkamp,et al.  Meta-analysis for comparative environmental case studies : methodological issues , 1997 .

[5]  S. Gusmeroli,et al.  Strategic research agenda , 2010 .

[6]  Peter Nijkamp,et al.  Methodological complexity in the use of meta-analysis for empirical environmental case studies , 1997 .

[7]  Alexei G. Sankovski,et al.  Special report on emissions scenarios , 2000 .

[8]  Peter Nijkamp,et al.  Environmental Policy Assessment and the Usefulness of Meta-analysis , 1997 .

[9]  Peter E. Kennedy,et al.  The Use (and Abuse) of Meta-analysis in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics: an Assessment , 2022 .

[10]  Anu Vedantham,et al.  Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx , 1998 .

[11]  Karen Mayor,et al.  The impact of European climate change regulations on international tourist markets , 2010 .

[12]  J. MacKinnon,et al.  Estimation and inference in econometrics , 1994 .

[13]  Wolfgang Grimme,et al.  The inclusion of aviation into the EU emission trading scheme – Impacts on competition between European and non-European network airlines , 2010 .

[14]  T. Wilbanks,et al.  Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .