Scenario-based analysis of land-use competition in central Iran: Finding the trade-off between urban growth patterns and agricultural productivity

Abstract This study attempts to evaluate different land-use scenarios in a highly growing region and also to find the trade-off between urbanization and agricultural productivity in the Isfahan City, central Iran. In doing so, several modeling tools including satellite image processing, Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE), Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model and scenario analysis are employed to delineate highly competitive zones and also to detect sustainable trajectories of future urban growth in the region. In this regard, suitability surfaces depicting the potential of the area for urbanization and agricultural activities are created using the MCE method and these layers were then used to produce continuous and categorized layers of land-use competition in the research area. These layers are also implemented to develop multiple growth scenarios through the CA-MC model and possible land-use competition zones are identified under historical and trend-breaking options. Finally, by integrating the total set of urban growth layers derived from predictive scenarios in this study, an innovative categorization scheme is developed to study the effect of each scenario on the intensity of land-use competition and agricultural productivity loss in the area. The results of this study provide a holistic insight regarding current conditions of the Isfahan City and also a simulation environment for planners to evaluate the possible outcomes of their decisions on fertile soils and future urban growth patterns.

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