Real-time reliability evaluation methodology based on dynamic Bayesian networks: A case study of a subsea pipe ram BOP system.

A novel real-time reliability evaluation methodology is proposed by combining root cause diagnosis phase based on Bayesian networks (BNs) and reliability evaluation phase based on dynamic BNs (DBNs). The root cause diagnosis phase exactly locates the root cause of a complex mechatronic system failure in real time to increase diagnostic coverage and is performed through backward analysis of BNs. The reliability evaluation phase calculates the real-time reliability of the entire system by forward inference of DBNs. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using a case of a subsea pipe ram blowout preventer system. The value and the variation trend of real-time system reliability when the faults of components occur are studied; the importance degree sequence of components at different times is also determined using mutual information and belief variance.

[1]  John Donovan,et al.  Using Bayesian Networks in reliability evaluation for an (r,s)-out-of-(m,n):F distributed communication system , 2009 .

[2]  Qiang Ji,et al.  A probabilistic framework for modeling and real-time monitoring human fatigue , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans.

[3]  Chenggang Bai,et al.  Bayesian network based software reliability prediction with an operational profile , 2005, J. Syst. Softw..

[4]  M. Tanrioven,et al.  A new approach to real-time reliability analysis of transmission system using fuzzy Markov model , 2004 .

[5]  Jose Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez,et al.  A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks , 2009, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[6]  Donghua Zhou,et al.  Real-time Reliability Prediction for a Dynamic System Based on the Hidden Degradation Process Identification , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[7]  Shengwei Wang,et al.  An intelligent chiller fault detection and diagnosis methodology using Bayesian belief network , 2013 .

[8]  Jianye Ching,et al.  Updating real-time reliability of instrumented systems with stochastic simulation , 2009 .

[9]  Yorgos Goletsis,et al.  Real-Time Driver's Stress Event Detection , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[10]  Moinul Hossain,et al.  A Bayesian network based framework for real-time crash prediction on the basic freeway segments of urban expressways. , 2012, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[11]  Vitali Volovoi,et al.  Application of Petri nets to reliability prediction of occupant safety systems with partial detection and repair , 2010, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[12]  Axel W. Krings,et al.  Dynamic Hybrid Fault Modeling and Extended Evolutionary Game Theory for Reliability, Survivability and Fault Tolerance Analyses , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[13]  Daniel Straub,et al.  Bayesian Network Enhanced with Structural Reliability Methods: Application , 2010, 1203.5985.

[14]  Enver Ever,et al.  Approximate solution for two stage open networks with Markov-modulated queues minimizing the state space explosion problem , 2009 .

[15]  Noureddine Zerhouni,et al.  CNC machine tool's wear diagnostic and prognostic by using dynamic Bayesian networks , 2012 .

[16]  Min Xie,et al.  Probability analysis of offshore fire by incorporating human and organizational factor , 2011 .

[17]  Edward A. McBean,et al.  Real-Time Water Quality Monitoring: Assessment of Multisensor Data Using Bayesian Belief Networks , 2012 .

[18]  Yonghong Liu,et al.  Using Bayesian networks in reliability evaluation for subsea blowout preventer control system , 2012, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[19]  Ian Jenkinson,et al.  The use of Bayesian network modelling for maintenance planning in a manufacturing industry , 2010, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[20]  Philippe Thomas,et al.  Assessment of the expected number and frequency of failures of periodically tested systems , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[21]  Min Xie,et al.  Dynamic availability assessment and optimal component design of multi-state weighted k-out-of-n systems , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[22]  Qian Fan,et al.  Multi-source information fusion based fault diagnosis of ground-source heat pump using Bayesian network , 2014 .

[23]  Marvin Rausand,et al.  Reliability assessment of safety instrumented systems subject to different demand modes , 2011 .

[24]  Antonio López-Quílez,et al.  A probabilistic expert system for predicting the risk of Legionella in evaporative installations , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..

[25]  Alyson G. Wilson,et al.  Bayesian networks for multilevel system reliability , 2007, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[26]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems - networks of plausible inference , 1991, Morgan Kaufmann series in representation and reasoning.

[27]  Luca Podofillini,et al.  Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[28]  Xianhui Yang,et al.  A simple reliability block diagram method for safety integrity verification , 2007, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[29]  Luigi Portinale,et al.  Approaching dynamic reliability with predictive and diagnostic purposes by exploiting dynamic Bayesian networks , 2014 .

[30]  Donghua Zhou,et al.  A New Real-Time Reliability Prediction Method for Dynamic Systems Based on On-Line Fault Prediction , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Reliability.

[31]  Bo Guo,et al.  Real-time Reliability Evaluation with a General Wiener Process-based Degradation Model , 2014, Qual. Reliab. Eng. Int..

[32]  W. F. Harlow,et al.  BP initial image repair strategies after the Deepwater Horizon spill , 2011 .

[33]  Hang Li,et al.  Reliability analysis of subsea blowout preventer control systems subjected to multiple error shocks , 2012 .

[34]  David Nash,et al.  A bayesian network for comparing dissolved nitrogen exports from high rainfall cropping in southeastern Australia. , 2010, Journal of environmental quality.

[35]  Daoud Aït-Kadi,et al.  Performance evaluation of multi-state degraded systems with minimal repairs and imperfect preventive maintenance , 2010, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[36]  Marcantonio Catelani,et al.  A simplified procedure for the analysis of Safety Instrumented Systems in the process industry application , 2011, Microelectron. Reliab..

[37]  Yves Dutuit,et al.  Probabilistic assessments in relationship with safety integrity levels by using Fault Trees , 2008, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[38]  Daniel Straub,et al.  Stochastic Modeling of Deterioration Processes through Dynamic Bayesian Networks , 2009 .