A hybrid model for river water temperature as a function of air temperature and discharge

Water temperature controls many biochemical and ecological processes in rivers, and theoretically depends on multiple factors. Here we formulate a model to predict daily averaged river water temperature as a function of air temperature and discharge, with the latter variable being more relevant in some specific cases (e.g., snowmelt-fed rivers, rivers impacted by hydropower production). The model uses a hybrid formulation characterized by a physically based structure associated with a stochastic calibration of the parameters. The interpretation of the parameter values allows for better understanding of river thermal dynamics and the identification of the most relevant factors affecting it. The satisfactory agreement of different versions of the model with measurements in three different rivers (root mean square error smaller than 1oC, at a daily timescale) suggests that the proposed model can represent a useful tool to synthetically describe medium- and long-term behavior, and capture the changes induced by varying external conditions.

[1]  E. Toro,et al.  WAF Method and Splitting Procedure for Simulating Hydro- and Thermal-Peaking Waves in Open-Channel Flows , 2009 .

[2]  G. Grant,et al.  Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, Oregon , 2007 .

[3]  B. Majone,et al.  Prediction of surface temperature in lakes with different morphology using air temperature , 2014 .

[4]  D. Caissie.  The thermal regime of rivers : a review , 2006 .

[5]  Mysore G. Satish,et al.  Modelling of maximum daily water temperatures in a small stream using air temperatures , 2001 .

[6]  Jason B. Dunham,et al.  Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature? , 2014 .

[7]  G. Zolezzi,et al.  Thermopeaking in Alpine streams: event characterization and time scales , 2010 .

[8]  D. Hannah,et al.  Recent advances in stream and river temperature research , 2008 .

[9]  Roger C. Bales,et al.  Estimating Stream Temperature from Air Temperature: Implications for Future Water Quality , 2005 .

[10]  G. McGregor,et al.  River energy budgets with special reference to river bed processes , 1998 .

[11]  Jeffrey G. Arnold,et al.  Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations , 2007 .

[12]  D. Schindler,et al.  Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature , 2015 .

[13]  James Kennedy,et al.  Particle swarm optimization , 2002, Proceedings of ICNN'95 - International Conference on Neural Networks.

[14]  M. Parlange,et al.  Stream temperature prediction in ungauged basins: review of recent approaches and description of a new physics-derived statistical model , 2015 .

[15]  Bernard Bobée,et al.  A Review of Statistical Water Temperature Models , 2007 .

[16]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  Stream temperature dynamics: Measurements and modeling , 1993 .

[17]  G. Sahoo,et al.  Forecasting stream water temperature using regression analysis, artificial neural network, and chaotic non-linear dynamic models , 2009 .

[18]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  Stream temperature/air temperature relationship : a physical interpretation , 1999 .

[19]  Desmond E. Walling,et al.  Water–air temperature relationships in a Devon river system and the role of flow , 2003 .

[20]  B. Majone,et al.  The role of stratification on lakes' thermal response: The case of Lake Superior , 2015 .

[21]  Mysore G. Satish,et al.  Predicting river water temperatures using the equilibrium temperature concept with application on Miramichi River catchments (New Brunswick, Canada) , 2005 .

[22]  G. Zolezzi,et al.  Thermal wave dynamics in rivers affected by hydropeaking , 2010 .

[23]  J.-L. Boillat,et al.  Hydropeaking indicators for characterization of the Upper-Rhone River in Switzerland , 2011, Aquatic Sciences.

[24]  Steven C. Chapra,et al.  Temperature Model for Highly Transient Shallow Streams , 1997 .

[25]  Marco Toffolon,et al.  A simple lumped model to convert air temperature into surface water temperature in lakes , 2013 .