A Model Based Approach to Support Risk Management in Innovation Projects

New product development is notably affected by uncertainties that are a consequence of insufficient experience and missing knowledge. If uncertainties are not managed adequately, they will finally lead to risks. We therefore advocate an integrated agile development process, allowing for explicit modelling of uncertainties and reaction strategies as well as the evaluation of the resulting risk caused by the changes to the product in development or the development process. As changes can again lead to undesired change propagation, finally resulting in new uncertainties and in consequence new risks, uncertainty response strategies need to be developed, evaluated and conducted collaboratively. In this publication the Integrated System and Risk Managing Model is presented, enabling users to describe and analyze product and process based uncertainties as well as potential response options within one consistent system. This paper elaborates the underlying structure of the model and concentrates on the modelling process, also explaining the application using examples from a case study.

[1]  Rui He,et al.  Design structure matrix-based Engineering Change management for product development , 2008 .

[2]  Birgit Verworn Die frühen Phasen der Produktentwicklung , 2005 .

[3]  Åsa Ericson,et al.  EXPLOIT AND EXPLORE: TWO WAYS OF CATEGORIZING INNOVATION PROJECTS , 2011 .

[4]  Maik Maurer,et al.  Structural Awareness in Complex Product Design , 2007 .

[5]  P. John Clarkson,et al.  A Classification of Uncertainty for Early Product and System Design , 2007 .

[6]  David K. H. Chua,et al.  Predicting Change Propagation and Impact on Design Schedule Due to External Changes , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.

[7]  P. John Clarkson,et al.  Change impact on a product and its redesign process: a tool for knowledge capture and reuse , 2013 .

[8]  Reinhold Hölscher Risikokosten-Management in Kreditinstituten : ein integratives Modell zur Messung und ertragsorientierten Steuerung der bankbetrieblichen Erfolgsrisiken , 1987 .

[9]  Andrea Bohn,et al.  UMEA - A FOLLOW-UP TO ANALYSE UNCERTAINTIES IN TECHNICAL SYSTEMS , 2011 .

[10]  Guy M. Merritt Proactive Risk Management: Controlling Uncertainty in Product Development , 2002 .

[11]  K. Ehrlenspiel,et al.  Integrierte Produktentwicklung - Denkabläufe, Methodeneinsatz, Zusammenarbeit , 2009 .

[12]  Cristiano Vasconcellos Ferreira,et al.  Project Team Attributes for Risk Management in the Product Design Process , 2007 .

[13]  J. Gausemeier,et al.  Die neue Richtlinie VDI 2206: Entwicklungsmethodik für mechatronische Systeme , 2003 .

[14]  Hugh McManus,et al.  A framework for understanding uncertainty and its mitigation and exploitation in complex systems , 2006, IEEE Engineering Management Review.

[15]  Werner Gleißner,et al.  Grundlagen des Risikomanagements im Unternehmen , 2011 .

[16]  Kilian Gericke,et al.  Enhancing Project Robustness: A Risk Management Perspective , 2011 .

[17]  Tyson R. Browning,et al.  Modeling and analyzing cost, schedule, and performance in complex system product development , 1998 .

[18]  P. John Clarkson,et al.  A method to assess the effects of engineering change propagation , 2012 .

[19]  Robert P. Smith,et al.  A predictive model of sequential iteration in engineering design , 1997 .

[20]  Barry W. Boehm,et al.  A spiral model of software development and enhancement , 1986, Computer.

[21]  E. H. Conrow,et al.  Effective Risk Management: Some Keys to Success , 2003 .

[22]  P. Clarkson,et al.  Predicting change propagation in complex design , 2004 .

[23]  Lawrence D. Pohlmann,et al.  Effective Risk Management: Some Keys to Success, Second Edition , 2004 .