The Prediction of Attrition From Military Service

Abstract : This paper provides a comparison of four statistical model for predicting first-year attrition from the Navy. The models compared are the individual linear probability model, the grouped linear probability models, the individual logit probability model and the grouped logit probability model. For different qualifying scores, the models are compared in terms of their ability to discriminate between attriters and non-attriters. Their ability to predict the actual attrition rates within future entry cohorts is also compared. (Author)