Using Expert-based Bayesian Networks as Decision Support Systems to Improve Project Management of Healthcare Software Projects

One of the pillars for sound Software Project Management is reliable effort estimation. Therefore it is important to fully identify what are the fundamental factors that affect an effort estimate for a new project and how these factors are inter-related. This paper describes a case study where a Bayesian Network model to estimate effort for healthcare software projects was built. This model was solely elicited from expert knowledge, with the participation of seven project managers, and was validated using data from 22 past finished projects. The model led to numerous changes in process and also in business. The company adapted their existing effort estimation process to be in line with the model that was created, and the use of a mathematically-based model also led to an increase in the number of projects being delegated to this company by other company branches worldwide.

[1]  Emilia Mendes,et al.  Web Metrics— Estimating and Authoring Effort , 2001 .

[2]  Emilia Mendes,et al.  A systematic review of web resource estimation , 2012, PROMISE '12.

[3]  Magne Jørgensen,et al.  Software Development Effort Estimation - Demystifying and Improving Expert Estimation , 2010, Simula Research Laboratory.

[4]  Ikujiro Nonaka,et al.  The knowledge-creating theory revisited: knowledge creation as a synthesizing process , 2003 .

[5]  Emilia Mendes,et al.  Bayesian Network Models for Web Effort Prediction: A Comparative Study , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.

[6]  Magne Jørgensen,et al.  A Systematic Review of Software Development Cost Estimation Studies , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.

[7]  Abou Bakar Naman,et al.  Productivity Inference with Dynamic Bayesian Models in Software Development Projects , 2012 .

[8]  A. White.  Development And Application Of A Bayesian Decision Support Tool To Assist In The Management Of An Endangered Species , 2005 .

[9]  Dieter Fensel,et al.  Knowledge Engineering: Principles and Methods , 1998, Data Knowl. Eng..

[10]  L. C. van der Gaag,et al.  Building probabilistic networks: Where do the numbers come from? - a guide to the literature , 2000 .

[11]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems , 1988 .

[12]  Kevin B. Korb,et al.  Parameterising Bayesian Networks , 2004, Australian Conference on Artificial Intelligence.

[13]  Brenda McCabe,et al.  Developing Complete Conditional Probability Tables from Fractional Data for Bayesian Belief Networks , 2007 .

[14]  Filomena Ferrucci,et al.  A Case Study Using Web Objects and COSMIC for Effort Estimation of Web Applications , 2008, 2008 34th Euromicro Conference Software Engineering and Advanced Applications.

[15]  Kevin B. Korb,et al.  Bayesian Artificial Intelligence , 2004, Computer science and data analysis series.

[16]  William Marsh,et al.  Making resource decisions for software projects , 2004, Proceedings. 26th International Conference on Software Engineering.

[17]  D. Ross Jeffery,et al.  Cost estimation for web applications , 2003, 25th International Conference on Software Engineering, 2003. Proceedings..

[18]  Emilia Mendes,et al.  Building an Expert-based Web Effort Estimation Model using Bayesian Networks , 2009, EASE.

[19]  Emilia Mendes,et al.  The Need for Web Engineering: An Introduction , 2006, Web Engineering.