Municipal forecasting practice: “demand” and “supply” side perspectives

Findings from a nationwide survey of Government Finance Officers Association members confirm previous research that indicates an over reliance on judgmental as opposed to quantitative forecast methods, for both revenue and expenditures. While incumbents in larger cities, and with advanced degrees, evidence greater forecast training than their small-city, baccalaureate-only counterparts, this differentiation fails to materialize in forecast practice. MPA's are at a disadvantage relative to MBA's In regression and econometrics. Content analysis of leading public administration texts suggests why utilization may be retarded in practice: forecasting, like many other “nuts and bolts” areas in public financial management, is displaced by continued treatment of budget format, budget theory, and public finance. This lends credence to recent reports of increasing practitioner dissatisfaction with academic-based consulting and training in the field, and raises questions about the need for NASPAA to exercise greater...

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