Spatio-Temporal Patterns for a Generalized Innovation Diffusion Model

We construct a model of innovation diffusion that incorporates a spatial component into a classical imitation-innovation dynamics first introduced by F. Bass. Relevant for situations where the imitation process explicitly depends on the spatial proximity between agents, the resulting nonlinear field dynamics is exactly solvable. As expected for nonlinear collective dynamics, the imitation mechanism generates spatio-temporal patterns, possessing here the remarkable feature that they can be explicitly and analytically discussed. The simplicity of the model, its intimate connection with the original Bass’ modeling framework and the exact transient solutions offer a rather unique theoretical stylized framework to describe how innovation jointly develops in space and time.

[1]  Dunia López-Pintado,et al.  Diffusion in complex social networks , 2008, Games Econ. Behav..

[2]  E. Mansfield TECHNICAL CHANGE AND THE RATE OF IMITATION , 1961 .

[3]  Boyan Jovanovic,et al.  Long Waves and Short Waves: Growth Through Intensive and Extensive Search , 1990 .

[4]  E. Sartori,et al.  A Simple Mean Field Model for Social Interactions: Dynamics, Fluctuations, Criticality , 2009, 0910.5078.

[5]  U. Horst Stochastic cascades, credit contagion, and large portfolio losses , 2007 .

[6]  David K. Levine,et al.  The evolution of cooperation through imitation , 2002, Games Econ. Behav..

[7]  A. Case Spatial Patterns in Household Demand , 1991 .

[8]  Olivier Gallay,et al.  Centralized versus decentralized control—A solvable stylized model in transportation , 2010 .

[9]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  Integrating time and space in technological substitution models , 1979 .

[10]  William A. Brock,et al.  Discrete Choice with Social Interactions , 2001 .

[11]  D. Fudenberg,et al.  Learning and Equilibrium , 2009 .

[12]  W. Runggaldier,et al.  Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model , 2007, 0704.1348.

[13]  D. Watts,et al.  Social Influence, Binary Decisions and Collective Dynamics , 2008 .

[14]  J. Bouchaud,et al.  Herd Behavior and Aggregate Fluctuations in Financial Markets , 1997 .

[15]  D. Levine Is Behavioral Economics Doomed , 2009 .

[16]  Tai Tsun Wu,et al.  A completely solvable model of the nonlinear Boltzmann equation , 1982 .

[17]  Vicsek,et al.  Novel type of phase transition in a system of self-driven particles. , 1995, Physical review letters.

[18]  Maryann P. Feldman,et al.  R&D spillovers and recipient firm size , 1994 .

[19]  Maryann P. Feldman,et al.  Knowledge complementarity and innovation , 1994 .

[20]  M. Rosenzweig,et al.  Learning by Doing and Learning from Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture , 1995, Journal of Political Economy.

[21]  George A. Akerlof Social Distance and Social Decisions , 1997 .

[22]  L. Blume The Statistical Mechanics of Strategic Interaction , 1993 .

[23]  Glenn Ellison Learning, Local Interaction, and Coordination , 1993 .

[24]  D Sornette,et al.  Imitation and contrarian behaviour: hyperbolic bubbles, crashes and chaos , 2001 .

[25]  Glenn Ellison,et al.  Rules of Thumb for Social Learning , 1993, Journal of Political Economy.

[26]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks. , 2000, Physical review letters.

[27]  Thomas W. Valente Network models of the diffusion of innovations , 1996, Comput. Math. Organ. Theory.

[28]  J. Schumpeter,et al.  Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process , 1940 .

[29]  M. Feldman,et al.  Knowledge spillovers and the geography of innovation , 2004 .

[30]  E. Rogers,et al.  Diffusion of innovations , 1964, Encyclopedia of Sport Management.

[31]  U. Horst Dynamic Systems of Social Interactions , 2010 .

[32]  J. Schumpeter,et al.  Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. , 1941 .

[33]  Z. Griliches HYBRID CORN: AN EXPLORATION IN THE ECONOMIC OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE , 1957 .

[34]  E. Glaeser,et al.  Crime and Social Interactions , 1995 .

[35]  Irene A. Stegun,et al.  Handbook of Mathematical Functions. , 1966 .

[36]  M. Feldman,et al.  R&D spillovers and the ge-ography of innovation and production , 1996 .

[37]  Monica Matei-Chesnoiu Geography and Trade , 2012 .

[38]  Z. Griliches Hybrid Corn and the Economics of Innovation. , 1960, Science.

[39]  Maryann P. Feldman,et al.  Real Effects of Academic Research: Comment , 1992 .

[40]  Rainer Andergassen,et al.  Innovation waves, self-organized criticality and technological convergence , 2006 .

[41]  F. Bass A new product growth model for consumer durables , 1976 .

[42]  Frank Steiner,et al.  Statistical Physics and Economics: Concepts, Tools, and Applications , 2003 .

[43]  Steven N. Durlauf,et al.  The interactions-based approach to socioeconomic behavior , 2000 .

[44]  M. Kac,et al.  Propagation of Chaos and the Burgers Equation , 1983 .

[45]  Felipe Cucker,et al.  Emergent Behavior in Flocks , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control.

[46]  O. Morgenstern,et al.  Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. , 1940 .