China in 2020: A New Type of Superpower

Hu Angang, China in 2020: A New Type of Superpower, Washington D.C., Brookings Institution Press, 2011, 213 pp.The economic rise of China has not only inspired new books on how to understand China's economy and its influence on the rest of world, but has also been accompanied by pessimistic views on China's impending collapse. A recent example is David Shambaugh's article "The Coming Chinese Crackup," published in The Wall Street Journal. Given that these books and views are fairly mixed and mainly published by non-Chinese scholars, it is of increasing importance to explore the perspectives and hear the voices of native Chinese scholars. Hu Angang's book China in 2020serves this aim well. As mentioned in the introduction by Dr. Cheng Li, "(...) arguably no scholar in the PRC has been more visionary in forecasting China's ascent to superpower status, more articulate in addressing the daunting demographic challenges that the country faces, or more prolific in proposing policy initiatives designed to advance an innovative and sustainable economic development strategy than Hu Angang."China in 2020covers two themes of particular interest: Chinese optimism and exceptionalism. Hu has been consistently optimistic about China's socioeconomic transformation. He declares that if current development trends continue, the day when China overtakes the U.S. in a variety of respects - not only in economic power but also in human capital, science, and technology - is not far off. The sources of his confidence in China becoming a superpower are detailed in different chapters of the book: economic power (Chapter 2), human resources and capital (chapters 3 to 5), science and technology achievements (Chapter 6), and the ability to address climate change (Chapter 7). All of these optimistic assessments are supported and explained by a wealth of information and statistics, in the accessing and collecting of which Hu has an incomparable advantage and rich experience. Hu founded and leads the Center for China Studies at Tsinghua University, which has carried out considerable work on China's national reports (guoqing baogao) covering various social and economic aspects over the long term (since 1998). More importantly, Hu's confident optimism regarding China is built upon a deep understanding of the patterns and efficiency of China's resource allocation, often covered by eyeball-catching topics that are overlooked by observers both inside and outside of China.As for the second theme, it is widely acknowledged that an emerging superpower will destabilise the existing international system. However, Hu points out that China's rise to superpower status will be an exception, which he names a "new type of superpower." He believes that China has neither the resources nor the intention to replace the U.S. and become sole leader of the world within the waves of globalisation. On the contrary, China needs to cooperate with the U.S. in order to meet global challenges. Furthermore, the book covers a great deal of the thinking behind China taking more re- sponsibility and making greater contributions to international society in terms of economic development, as well as culture, science, and ecology. Hu's view of Chinese exceptionalism will no doubt encounter continued scrutiny. …