Chapter 14 Survey Expectations

[1]  M. Weale,et al.  Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: evidence from qualitative survey data , 2007 .

[2]  Leigh Tesfatsion,et al.  Agent-Based Computational Economics: Growing Economies From the Bottom Up , 2002, Artificial Life.

[3]  Kajal Lahiri,et al.  Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts , 2006 .

[4]  Kajal Lahiri,et al.  How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys , 2006 .

[5]  Charles F. Manski,et al.  Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters , 2006 .

[6]  Allan Timmermann,et al.  Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss , 2005 .

[7]  James Mitchell,et al.  Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm-Level Survey Data , 2005 .

[8]  C. Hommes Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance , 2005 .

[9]  M. Hashem Pesaran,et al.  REAL-TIME ECONOMETRICS , 2004, Econometric Theory.

[10]  Allan Timmermann,et al.  Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss? , 2008 .

[11]  Andrew J. Patton,et al.  Testable Implications of Forecast Optimality , 2004 .

[12]  F. Orlandi,et al.  Inflation Persistence in the European Union, the Euro Area, and the United States , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[13]  M. Pesaran Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[14]  Allan Timmermann,et al.  Optimal Forecast Combination Under Regime Switching , 2004 .

[15]  W. Branch The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations , 2004 .

[16]  Charles F. Manski,et al.  How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence , 2004 .

[17]  Giovanni Urga,et al.  Transforming Qualitative Survey Data: Performance Comparisons for the UK , 2004 .

[18]  Nicholas S. Souleles Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys , 2004 .

[19]  Michela Nardo,et al.  The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment , 2003 .

[20]  C. Manski,et al.  How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers , 2003 .

[21]  Christopher D. Carroll,et al.  Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters , 2003 .

[22]  J. Wolfers,et al.  Disagreement about Inflation Expectations , 2003, NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

[23]  William A. Branch,et al.  Local convergence properties of a cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations , 2002 .

[24]  T. Jappelli,et al.  An Empirical Analysis of Earnings and Employment Risk , 2002 .

[25]  James Mitchell,et al.  Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data , 2002 .

[26]  F. Hild Une lecture enrichie des réponses aux enquêtes de conjoncture , 2002 .

[27]  H. Erkel-Rousse,et al.  Conjonctures sectorielles et prévision à court terme de l'activité : l'apport de l'enquête de conjoncture dans les services , 2002 .

[28]  Mordecai Kurz Heterogenous Forecasting and Federal Reserve Information , 2001 .

[29]  Paolo Giordani,et al.  Inflation Forecast Uncertainty , 2001 .

[30]  Jeff Dominitz,et al.  Estimation of income expectations models using expectations and realization data , 2001 .

[31]  G. Evans,et al.  Learning and expectations in macroeconomics , 2001 .

[32]  Carl S. Bonham,et al.  Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis using Survey Data , 2001 .

[33]  Clive W. J. Granger,et al.  A Decision_Theoretic Approach to Forecast Evaluation , 2000 .

[34]  S. Gregoir,et al.  Measuring the Probability of a Business Cycle Turning Point by Using a Multivariate Qualitative Hidden Markov Model , 2000 .

[35]  R. MacDonald Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say , 2000 .

[36]  G. Prat,et al.  Price expectations in goods and financial markets , 2000 .

[37]  Howell Tong,et al.  Statistics and finance: an interface , 2000 .

[38]  R. Batchelor,et al.  Variance rationality: a direct test , 2000 .

[39]  L. B. Thomas Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation , 1999 .

[40]  Gunter Löffler Refining the Carlson–Parkin method , 1999 .

[41]  William A. Bomberger Disagreement and Uncertainty: A Reply to Richa and Butler , 1999 .

[42]  Kajal Lahiri,et al.  Analysis of panels and limited dependent variable models: Re-examining the rational expectations hypothesis using panel data on multi-period forecasts , 1999 .

[43]  Cheng Hsiao,et al.  Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variable Models , 1999 .

[44]  M. Pesaran,et al.  Decision-Making in the Presence of Heterogeneous Information and Social Interactions , 1998 .

[45]  Roy Batchelor,et al.  Rationality testing under asymmetric loss , 1998 .

[46]  J. S. Butler,et al.  Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty: A Comment on Bomberger , 1998 .

[47]  Jeff Dominitz,et al.  Earnings Expectations, Revisions, and Realizations , 1998, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[48]  G. Elliott,et al.  Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Exchange rate Market , 1998 .

[49]  Applied Economics and Public Policy , 1998 .

[50]  Richard J. Smith,et al.  Applied Economics and Public Policy: Measurement errors and data estimation: the quantification of survey data , 1998 .

[51]  M. Hurd,et al.  The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival , 1997 .

[52]  William A. Brock,et al.  A rational route to randomness , 1997 .

[53]  F. Diebold,et al.  Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss , 1994, Econometric Theory.

[54]  D. Croushore,et al.  The Livingston Survey: Still Useful After All These Years , 1997 .

[55]  Jukka Lassila,et al.  Short-term forecasting of industrial production with business survey data: experience from Finland's great depression 1990–1993☆ , 1996 .

[56]  William A. Bomberger Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty , 1996 .

[57]  Jeff Dominitz,et al.  Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations , 1996 .

[58]  George Wright,et al.  The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques , 1996 .

[59]  G. Maddala,et al.  Testing the Rationality of Survey Data Using the Weighted Double-Bootstrapped Method of Moments , 1996 .

[60]  B. Donkers,et al.  How Certain are Dutch Households about Future Income? An Empirical Analysis , 1999 .

[61]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance , 1995 .

[62]  Reinhold Bergström,et al.  The relationship between manufacturing production and different business survey series in Sweden 1968–;1992 , 1995 .

[63]  Anthony Davies,et al.  A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data☆ , 1995 .

[64]  M. Pesaran,et al.  Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels , 1995 .

[65]  Michael McAleer,et al.  Alternative Procedures for Converting Qualitative Response Data to Quantitative Expectations: An Application to Australian Manufacturing , 1995 .

[66]  G. Parigi,et al.  Quarterly forecasts of the italian business cycle by means of monthly economic indicators , 1995 .

[67]  R. Suzman,et al.  An Overview of the Health and Retirement Study , 1995 .

[68]  Mordecai Kurz On the structure and diversity of rational beliefs , 1994 .

[69]  C. Manski,et al.  Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations , 1994 .

[70]  Timo Teräsvirta,et al.  The combination of forecasts using changing weights , 1994 .

[71]  Horst Entorf,et al.  Constructing leading indicators from non-balanced sectoral business survey series , 1993 .

[72]  Klaus Schöler,et al.  Konjunkturindikatoren auf der Grundlage von Survey Daten - Teil I/Leading Indicators on the Basis of Survey Data — Part I , 1993 .

[73]  Mark P. Taylor,et al.  Private behaviour and government policy in interdependent economies , 1993 .

[74]  J. Madsen The predictive value of production expectations in manufacturing industry , 1993 .

[75]  Kajal Lahiri,et al.  On the use of dispersion measures from NAPM surveys in business cycle forecasting , 1993 .

[76]  Timo Teräsvirta,et al.  Business survey data in forecasting the output of swedish and finnish metal and engineering industries: A kalman filter approach , 1993 .

[77]  J. S. Butler,et al.  Testing for measurement errors in expectations from survey data: An instrumental variables approach , 1993 .

[78]  Dean Croushore,et al.  Introducing: The Survey of Professional Forecasters , 1993 .

[79]  Tullio Jappelli,et al.  Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving , 1992 .

[80]  Kajal Lahiri,et al.  A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data , 1992 .

[81]  Marc Ivaldi,et al.  Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Expectations , 1992 .

[82]  K. Wärneryd,et al.  Understanding Economic Behaviour , 1992 .

[83]  George W. Evans,et al.  Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics , 1992 .

[84]  Kun Chang Lee,et al.  Formation of Price and Cost Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries , 1994 .

[85]  G. Maddala,et al.  Measurement Errors and Tests for Rationality , 1991 .

[86]  Kenneth A. Froot,et al.  Chartists, Fundamentalists and the Demand for Dollars , 1991 .

[87]  A. Zellner,et al.  Forecasting turning points in international output growth rates using Bayesian exponentially weighted autoregression, time-varying parameter, and pooling techniques , 1991 .

[88]  D. Dacy,et al.  In Search of a "Strictly Rational" Forecast , 1991 .

[89]  Philip A. Klein,et al.  Leading economic indicators: Purchasing management survey data: Their value as leading indicators , 1991 .

[90]  Kajal Lahiri,et al.  Leading economic indicators : new approaches and forecasting records , 1991 .

[91]  Ricardo J. Caballero On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship , 1991 .

[92]  M. Ivaldi Direct Tests of the Rational Expectation Hypothesis , 1991 .

[93]  Lars-Erik Öller,et al.  Forecasting the business cycle using survey data , 1990 .

[94]  Satoru Kanoh,et al.  A Method of Exploring the Mechanism of Inflationary Expectations Based on Qualitative Survey Data , 1990 .

[95]  Shinji Takagi,et al.  Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies , 1990, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[96]  Mark P. Taylor,et al.  Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market , 1990 .

[97]  David E. Runkle,et al.  Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data , 1990 .

[98]  Ray C. Fair,et al.  Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models , 1990 .

[99]  M. Hashem Pesaran,et al.  Consistency of short-term and long-term expectations , 1989 .

[100]  Panikos O. Demetriades The relationship between the level and variability of inflation: Theory and evidence , 1989 .

[101]  Roy Batchelor,et al.  Inflation Expectations Revisited , 1988 .

[102]  Takatoshi Ito Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data , 1988 .

[103]  K. Lahiri,et al.  Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Inflation Forecasts , 1988 .

[104]  Takatoshi Ito,et al.  On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations , 1988 .

[105]  M. Hashem Pesaran,et al.  The Limits to Rational Expectations , 1988 .

[106]  Kenneth A. Froot,et al.  Short-Term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data , 1987 .

[107]  Kenneth A. Froot,et al.  Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations , 1986 .

[108]  Christian Gourieroux,et al.  Direct test of the rational expectation hypothesis , 1986 .

[109]  Arnold Zellner,et al.  Biased predictors, rationality and the evaluation of forecasts , 1986 .

[110]  Kathryn M. E. Dominguez,et al.  Are foreign exchange forecasts rational?: New evidence from survey data , 1986 .

[111]  M. H. Pesaran,et al.  Formation of Inflation Expectations in British Manufacturing Industries , 1985 .

[112]  Peter Praet Endogenizing consumers' expectations in four major EC countries , 1985 .

[113]  Arnold Zellner,et al.  Applied Time Series Analysis of Economic Data. , 1985 .

[114]  S. Wren‐Lewis The Quantification of Survey Data on Expectations∗ , 1985, National Institute Economic Review.

[115]  Kenneth A. Froot,et al.  Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations , 1985 .

[116]  J. Caskey Modeling the Formation of Price Expectations: A Bayesian Approach , 1985 .

[117]  Peter Praet,et al.  The contribution of E.C. consumer surveys in forecasting consumer expenditures: An econometric analysis for four major countries , 1984 .

[118]  C. Granger,et al.  Improved methods of combining forecasts , 1984 .

[119]  P. Malgrange,et al.  Contemporary macroeconomic modelling , 1984 .

[120]  Marc Nerlove,et al.  Expectations, Plans, and Realizations in Theory and Practice , 1983 .

[121]  Stephen Figlewski,et al.  Rational Expectations, Informational Efficiency, and Tests Using Survey Data: A Reply [The Formation of Inflationary Expectations] , 1983 .

[122]  Robert M. Townsend,et al.  Forecasting the Forecasts of Others , 1983, Journal of Political Economy.

[123]  Roy Batchelor,et al.  Expectations, output and inflation: The European experience , 1982 .

[124]  Paul R. Milgrom,et al.  Rational Expectations, Information Acquisition, and Competitive Bidding , 1981 .

[125]  R. Batchelor Aggregate expectations under the stable laws , 1981 .

[126]  K. Lahiri,et al.  On the estimation of inflationary expectations from qualitative responses , 1981 .

[127]  Shlomo Maital,et al.  What Do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations , 1981 .

[128]  Stephen Figlewski,et al.  The Formation of Inflationary Expectations , 1981 .

[129]  Sanford J. Grossman On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets , 1980 .

[130]  Martin Hellwig,et al.  On the aggregation of information in competitive markets , 1980 .

[131]  Ulf Olsson,et al.  Maximum likelihood estimation of the polychoric correlation coefficient , 1979 .

[132]  R. Radner Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices , 1979 .

[133]  L. A. Goodman,et al.  Measures of association for cross classifications , 1979 .

[134]  Michael J. Hartley,et al.  Estimating Mixtures of Normal Distributions and Switching Regressions: Comment , 1978 .

[135]  J. B. Ramsey,et al.  Estimating Mixtures of Normal Distributions and Switching Regressions , 1978 .

[136]  Robert M. Townsend,et al.  Market Anticipations, Rational Expectations, and Bayesian Analysis , 1978 .

[137]  Brenton R. Clarke,et al.  Comment on "Estimating mixtures of normal distributions and switching regressions" by Quandt and Ramsey , 1978 .

[138]  J. Frenkel Inflation and the formation of expectations , 1976 .

[139]  J. E. Pesando,et al.  A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations , 1975, Journal of Political Economy.

[140]  Stephen E. Fienberg,et al.  Studies in Bayesian econometrics and statistics : in honor of Leonard J. Savage , 1975 .

[141]  L. Robert Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs. , 1973 .

[142]  J. Stiglitz,et al.  Economic Forecasts and Expectations. , 1971 .

[143]  F. Juster,et al.  Anticipations and Purchases , 1965 .

[144]  F. Adams Consumer Attitudes, Buying Plans, and Purchases of Durable Goods: A Principal Components, Time Series Approach , 1964 .

[145]  A. Zellner An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias , 1962 .

[146]  D. Meiselman The term structure of interest rates , 1962 .

[147]  J. Muth Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements , 1961 .

[148]  J. Muth Optimal Properties of Exponentially Weighted Forecasts , 1960 .

[149]  Jacob Cohen All-Bank Statistics United States 1896-1955. , 1960 .

[150]  James Tobin,et al.  On the Predictive Value of Consumer Intentions and Attitudes , 1959 .

[151]  Marc Nerlove,et al.  Adaptive Expectations and Cobweb Phenomena , 1958 .

[152]  G. Katona Federal Reserve Board Committee Reports on Consumer Expectations and Savings Statistics , 1957 .

[153]  Richard T. Selden,et al.  Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money. , 1956 .

[154]  H. Guitton,et al.  Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis , 1955 .

[155]  Henri Theil,et al.  On the Time Shape of Economic Microvariables and the Munich Business Test , 1952 .

[156]  Oskar Anderson join The Business Test of the IFO-Institute for Economic Research, Munich, and Its Theoretical Model , 1952 .

[157]  Richard Stone,et al.  The Precision of National Income Estimates , 1942 .

[158]  J. Keynes,et al.  The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. , 1936 .

[159]  F. Knight The economic nature of the firm: From Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit , 2009 .