Predictive modeling of mercury speciation in combustion flue gases using GMDH-based abductive networks

Abstract Modeling mercury speciation is an important requirement for estimating harmful emissions from coal-fired power plants and developing strategies to reduce them. First-principle models based on chemical, kinetic, and thermodynamic aspects exist, but these are complex and difficult to develop. The use of modern data-based machine learning techniques has been recently introduced, including neural networks. Here we propose an alternative approach using abductive networks based on the group method of data handling (GMDH) algorithm, with the advantages of simplified and more automated model synthesis, automatic selection of significant inputs, and more transparent input–output model relationships. Models were developed for predicting three types of mercury speciation (elemental, oxidized, and particulate) using a small dataset containing six inputs parameters on the composition of the coal used and boiler operating conditions. Prediction performance compares favourably with neural network models developed using the same dataset, with correlation coefficients as high as 0.97 for training data. Network committees (ensembles) are proposed as a means of improving prediction accuracy, and suggestions are made for future work to further improve performance.