A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth and carbon allocation in a semi-arid woodland

14 Many studies have failed to show an increase in the radial growth of trees in response to 15 increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] despite the expected enhancement of 16 photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency at high [CO2]. A global light use efficiency 17 model of photosynthesis, coupled with a generic carbon allocation and tree-growth model 18 based on mass balance and tree geometry principals, was used to simulate annual ring19 width variations for the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western 20 Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values for the tree21 growth model were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific 22 2 respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of 23 fine-root mass to foliage area (ζ), which were calibrated to the ring-width measurements by 24 approximate Bayesian calibration. This procedure imposed a strong constraint on ζ. 25 Modelled and observed ring-widths showed quantitatively similar, positive responses to 26 total annual photosynthetically active radiation and soil moisture, and similar negative 27 responses to vapour pressure deficit. The model also produced enhanced radial growth in 28 response to increasing [CO2] during recent decades, but the data do not show this. 29 Recalibration in moving 30-year time windows produced temporal shifts in the estimated 30 values of ζ, including an increase by ca 12% since the 1960s, and eliminated the [CO2]31 induced increase in radial growth. The potential effect of CO2 on ring-width was thus shown 32 to be small compared to effects of climate variability even in this semi-arid climate. It could 33 be counteracted in the model by a modest allocation shift, as has been observed in field 34 experiments with raised [CO2]. 35

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