A systems approach to meeting the challenges of urban climate change

This article identifies the future challenges that cities face in their ability to create well-being, particularly for urban poor communities, as a result of the compound effect generated by climate change – distinguishing between direct impacts, indirect effects and pre-existing vulnerability. This suggests that action to reduce exposure and improve the adaptive capacity of urban populations must therefore simultaneously address disaster risk reduction, urban poverty reduction and urban resilience (i.e. the ability of the city to maintain the functions that support the well-being of its citizens). Based on evidence and experience from 10 cities which form part of the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (www.acccrn.org), this article proposes that a simplified conceptual model and resilience characteristics be used to analyse urban systems, in parallel with spatial analysis, to target action at multiple levels to reduce exposure and improve the adaptive capacity of urban populations simultaneously.

[1]  Arie Rip,et al.  Technological Change , 2019, World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains.

[2]  Simin Davoudi,et al.  Planning for climate change: Strategies for mitigation and adaptation for spatial planners , 2009 .

[3]  Adrian Smith,et al.  The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions , 2005 .

[4]  A. Maslow The Farther Reaches of Human Nature , 1971 .

[5]  O. Canziani,et al.  Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Summary for policymakers , 2007 .

[6]  T. O’Rourke,et al.  Critical Infrastructure , Interdependencies , and Resilience , 2022 .

[7]  S. Pickett,et al.  Resilient cities: meaning, models, and metaphor for integrating the ecological, socio-economic, and planning realms , 2004 .

[8]  Bill Hillier,et al.  Space is the machine: A configurational theory of architecture , 1996 .

[9]  David R. Godschalk,et al.  Urban Hazard Mitigation: Creating Resilient Cities , 2003 .

[10]  Thomas Tanner,et al.  The resilience renaissance? Unpacking of resilience for tackling climate change and disasters, SCR Discussion Paper 1 , 2010 .

[11]  C. Moser,et al.  Towards pro-poor adaptation to climate change in the urban centers of low- and middle-income countries,' , 2010 .

[12]  Jane Summerton Changing Large Technical Systems , 1994 .

[13]  M. Ruth,et al.  Understanding and managing the complexity of urban systems under climate change , 2007 .

[14]  Niels Schulz,et al.  Delving into the carbon footprints of Singapore--comparing direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions of a small and open economic system , 2010 .

[15]  R. G. Coyle,et al.  System Dynamics Modelling , 1996 .

[16]  L. Mumford,et al.  The City in History. Its Origins, Its Transformations, and Its Prospects , 1961 .

[17]  P. Newman Sustainability and cities: extending the metabolism model , 1999 .

[18]  A. Maslow,et al.  Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs , 2016 .

[19]  Joel B. Smith,et al.  Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change , 1996 .

[20]  Deyan Sudjic,et al.  The endless city: the Urban Age project by the London School of Economics and Deutsche Bank’s Alfred Herrhausen Society , 2007 .

[21]  Federica Ranghieri,et al.  Climate resilient cities : a primer on reducing vulnerabilities to disasters - Albuquerque, NM, USA , 2009 .

[22]  Vc Broto,et al.  Planning for Climate Change: Strategies for Mitigation and Adaptation for Spatial Planners , 2011 .

[23]  Michel Bruneau,et al.  A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities , 2003 .

[24]  G. Silverberg Complexity and Co‐evolution: Continuity and Change in Socio‐economic Systems. By ELIZABETH GARNSEY AND JAMES MCGLADE , 2011 .

[25]  M. Hodson,et al.  Urban ecological security : the new urban paradigm , 2007 .

[26]  B. Barth Adapting Cities to Climate Change: Understanding and Addressing the Development Challenges , 2010 .

[27]  D. Dodman,et al.  Institutional Capacity, Climate Change Adaptation and the Urban Poor , 2009 .

[28]  R. Mearns,et al.  Social dimensions of climate change : equity and vulnerability in a warming world , 2009 .

[29]  R. Moss,et al.  Ecosystems and human well-being: a framework for assessment , 2003 .

[30]  Debra Roberts,et al.  Prioritizing climate change adaptation and local level resilience in Durban, South Africa , 2010 .

[31]  J. Hardoy,et al.  Urban poverty and vulnerability to climate change in Latin America , 2009 .

[32]  N. Thrift,et al.  Out of Order , 2007 .

[33]  H. Bulkeley Cities and the Governing of Climate Change , 2010 .

[34]  S. Graham When Infrastructures Fail , 2010 .

[35]  J. Keirstead Towards Urban Energ y S ystem Indica tors , 2007 .

[36]  E. Garnsey,et al.  Complexity and co-evolution : continuity and change in socio-economic systems , 2006 .

[37]  Tom Corsellis,et al.  Transitional Settlement: Displaced Populations , 2005 .

[38]  Jane Bennett The Agency of Assemblages and the North American Blackout , 2005 .

[39]  A. Clayton,et al.  Sustainability: A Systems Approach , 1996 .

[40]  Will Medd,et al.  Metabolisms of Obecity: Flows of Fat through Bodies, Cities, and Sewers , 2006 .

[41]  M. Hodson,et al.  URBAN WORLDS ‘ Urban Ecological Security ’ : A New Urban Paradigm ? , 2009 .

[42]  Jianguo Wu,et al.  Collaborative landscape-scale ecological research: Emerging trends in urban and regional ecology , 2004, Urban Ecosystems.

[43]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective , 2007 .

[44]  Stephen Graham,et al.  Disrupted cities : when infrastructure fails , 2010 .

[45]  G. Yohe,et al.  Indicators for social and economic coping capacity - moving towards a working definition of adaptive capacity, research unit sustainability and global change , 2001 .

[46]  K. Shine,et al.  Intergovernmental panel on Climate change (IPCC),in encyclopedia of Enviroment and society,Vol.3 , 2007 .

[47]  A. McMichael,et al.  Ecosystems and Human well-being , 2003 .

[48]  J. Scheurer,et al.  Urban ecology, innovations in housing policy and the future of cities: Towards sustainability in neighbourhood communities , 2001 .

[49]  Un Millennium A Home in the City: Task Force on Improving the Lives of Slum Dwellers , 2005 .

[50]  Stuart Barr,et al.  A blueprint for the integrated assessment of climate change in cities , 2009 .

[51]  S. Pauleit,et al.  Urban green infrastructure , 2020, The Routledge Handbook of Urban Ecology.

[52]  C. Folke RESILIENCE: THE EMERGENCE OF A PERSPECTIVE FOR SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSES , 2006 .

[53]  D. Dodman,et al.  Challenges For Community‐Based Adaptation: Discovering The Potential For Transformation , 2013 .

[54]  D. Dodman,et al.  Adapting cities to climate change , 2009 .

[55]  Herbert Girardet Cities People Planet: Liveable Cities for a Sustainable World , 2004 .

[56]  James C. Hyatt,et al.  Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs , 2018 .

[57]  F. Geels From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory , 2004 .

[58]  P. Hall Looking Backward, Looking Forward: The City Region of the Mid-21st Century , 2009 .

[59]  M. Batty,et al.  Cities: Continuity, Transformation and Emergence , 2006 .

[60]  J. Morgan Grove,et al.  A social ecology approach and applications of urban ecosystem and landscape analyses: a case study of Baltimore, Maryland , 1997, Urban Ecosystems.

[61]  D. McEvoy,et al.  Adaptation and mitigation in urban areas: synergies and conflicts , 2006 .

[62]  Timothy F. Smith,et al.  Towards Enhancing Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change Response in South East Queensland , 2010 .

[63]  David Sanderson,et al.  Cities, Disasters and Livelihoods , 2000 .

[64]  Jay Wright Forrester,et al.  Urban Dynamics , 1969 .

[65]  R G Coyle,et al.  System Dynamics Modelling: A Practical Approach , 1996 .

[66]  B. Warf Splintering Urbanism: Networked Infrastructures, Technological Mobilities, and the Urban Condition , 2003 .

[67]  C. S. Holling Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems , 1973 .

[68]  S. Schneider,et al.  Climate Change 2007 Synthesis report , 2008 .

[69]  3 Ecosystems and Human Well-being , 2022 .

[70]  Adrian Smith,et al.  Translating Sustainabilities between Green Niches and Socio-Technical Regimes , 2007, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag..

[71]  Jochen Monstadt Conceptualizing the Political Ecology of Urban Infrastructures: Insights from Technology and Urban Studies , 2009 .

[72]  Gary Yohe,et al.  moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity , 2002 .

[73]  Frederick C. Cuny,et al.  Living with floods: Alternatives for riverine flood mitigation , 1991 .

[74]  Elliott Sclar,et al.  A home in the city , 2005 .

[75]  S. Pickett,et al.  A conceptual framework for the study of human ecosystems in urban areas , 1997, Urban Ecosystems.

[76]  Thomas J. Campanella Urban Resilience and the Recovery of New Orleans , 2006 .