Prediction of Top-Down Crack Initiation and Propagation in Asphalt Pavements based on a Mechanistic-Empirical Approach
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A top-down crack (TDC) prediction model is developed and validated in this study. Fatigue crack initiation and propagation models are selected for the TDC prediction. To predict the TDC for real pavements, the fatigue models are incorporated into a mechanistic-empirical based analysis program. The fatigue models are then calibrated using a PMS data set obtained from Gyungbu Expressway. Through a series of calibration process, calibration factors for the two fatigue models are determined, and the relation between the crack depth and length is proposed by comparing the predicted crack lengths with the PMS data. It is also observed from the calibration that the longitudinal TDC are mostly developed in the wheel path. The TDC prediction model is further validated using the field investigation results conducted on three different pavement sections in Incheon international airport expressway. The validation results indicate that cracking processes in the three pavement sections could be reasonably predicted by the TDC prediction model proposed in this study.