Computer Simulation Model for Civil Evacuation from Large-Scale Fires

This paper presents a mathematical model of the evacuation flow of civilians over a large-scale network consisting of roads, intersections, residential blocks, evacuation goals, and surrounding areas. The model is constructed from two basic laws in evacuation dynamics -- the continuity law of human evacuation and the empirical relation between walking velocity and the concentration of people. The essential part of this model is of determining the evacuation flow direction utilizing a newly-defined psychological potential generated from the human fear of large fires and the concommitant wish to reach an evacuation goal. The computer simulation model was proved to produce a reasonable evacuation process through a good agreement of simulation results with those from the Great Kanto Earthquake disaster which occurred in 1923 in the Tokyo area.