Assessing crown fire potential in coniferous forests of western North America: a critique of current approaches and recent simulation studies.

To control and use wildland fires safely and effectively depends on creditable assessments of fire potential, including the propensity for crowning in conifer forests. Simulation studies that use certain fire modelling systems (i.e. NEXUS, FlamMap, FARSITE, FFE-FVS (Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator), Fuel Manage- ment Analyst (FMAPlus), BehavePlus) based on separate implementations or direct integration of Rothermel's surface andcrownrateoffirespread modelswithVanWagner'scrownfiretransitionandpropagationmodelsareshowntohavea significant underprediction bias when used in assessing potential crown fire behaviour in conifer forests of western North America.Theprincipal sourcesof thisunderprediction biasareshowntoinclude:(i)incompatible modellinkages;(ii)use of surfaceand crownfire rateof spreadmodels that havean inherent underprediction bias;and (iii)reductionincrown fire rate of spread based on the use of unsubstantiated crown fraction burned functions. The use of uncalibrated custom fuel models to represent surface fuelbeds is a fourth potential source of bias. These sources are described and documented in detail based on comparisons with experimental fire and wildfire observations and on separate analyses of model components.Themannerinwhichthetwoprimarycanopyfuelinputsinfluencingcrownfireinitiation(i.e.foliarmoisture contentandcanopybaseheight)ishandledinthesesimulationstudiesandthemeaningofScottandReinhardt'stwocrown fire hazard indices are also critically examined.

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