A Persistent Threat: The Evolution of al Qa'ida and Other Salafi Jihadists

Abstract : This report examines the status and evolution of al Qa'ida and other Salafi-jihadist groups, a subject of intense debate in the West. Some argue that al Qa'ida especially core al Qa'ida has been severely weakened, and there is no longer a major threat to the United States from Salafi-jihadist and other terrorist groups. Former CIA officer Marc Sageman concluded that al Qaeda is no longer seen as an existential threat to the West and the hysteria over a global conspiracy against the West has faded. According to University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer, Terrorism most of it arising from domestic groups was a much bigger problem in the United States during the 1970s than it has been since the Twin Towers were toppled. Brian Jenkins argued that few of America's jihadists were dedicated or competent terrorists, resembling stray dogs rather than lone wolves. According to Jenkins, of the 32 jihadist terrorist plots uncovered since September 11, 2001, most never moved beyond the discussion stage. Only ten had what could be described as an operational plan, and of these, six were FBI stings. By comparison, the United States saw an average of 50 to 60 terrorist bombings a year in the 1970s and a greater number of fatalities. Some contend that the most acute threat to the United States comes from homegrown terrorists. Still others maintain that al Qa'ida is resilient and remains a serious threat to the United States. Finally, some claim that while the al Qa'ida organization established by Osama bin Laden is in decline, al Qa'idism a decentralized amalgam of freelance extremist groups is far from dead. Which of these views is most accurate? To better gauge the state of al Qa'ida and other Salafi-jihadist groups, this report uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative data.