Predicting ozone levels

This paper presents a statistical model that is capable of predicting ozone levels from precursor concentrations and meteorological conditions during daylight hours in the Shuaiba Industrial Area (SIA) of Kuwait. The model has been developed from ambient air quality data that was recorded for one year starting from December 1994 using an air pollution mobile monitoring station. The functional relationship between ozone level and the various independent variables has been determined by using a stepwise multiple regression modelling procedure. The model contains two terms that describe the dependence of ozone on nitrogen oxides (NOx) and nonmethane hydrocarbon precursor concentrations, and other terms that relate to wind direction, wind speed, sulphur dioxide (SO2) and solar energy. In the model, the levels of the precursors are inversely related to ozone concentration, whereas SO2 concentration, wind speed and solar radiation are positively correlated. Typically, 63 % of the variation in ozone levels can be explained by the levels of NOx. The model is shown to be statistically significant and model predictions and experimental observations are shown to be consistent. A detailed analysis of the ozone-temperature relationship is also presented; at temperatures less than 27 °C there is a positive correlation between temperature and ozone concentration whereas at temperatures greater than 27 °C a negative correlation is seen. This is the first time a non-monotonic relationship between ozone levels and temperature has been reported and discussed.

[1]  J. S. Jacobson,et al.  Pattern of atmospheric sulphur dioxide occurrence: An important criterion in vegetation effects assessment , 1985 .

[2]  B. R. Appel,et al.  Photochemical Smog and the Atmospheric Reactions of Solvents , 1973 .

[3]  M. L. Williams,et al.  Surface ozone concentrations in the U.K. in 1987-1988 , 1989 .

[4]  A. J. Haagen-Smit.  Chemistry and Physiology of Los Angeles Smog , 1952 .

[5]  C. K. Varshney,et al.  Ozone pollution in the urban atmosphere of Delhi , 1992 .

[6]  John H. Seinfeld,et al.  Development of a second-generation mathematical model for urban air pollution—II. Evaluation of model performance , 1983 .

[7]  M. Bayramoğlu,et al.  Air pollution modelling in Erzurum city. , 1993, Environmental pollution.

[8]  J. Kinosian.  Ozone-precursor relationships from EKMA diagrams. , 1982, Environmental science & technology.

[9]  F. A. Gifford,et al.  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics of Air Pollution , 1987 .

[10]  B. A. García,et al.  Concentration, sources and particle size distribution of the atmospheric aerosol of the oviedo urban nucleus (Spain) , 1988 .

[11]  K. Boucher.  The monitoring of air pollutants in Athens with particular reference to nitrogen dioxide , 1991 .

[12]  Elizabeth M. Middleton,et al.  The application of forest classification from Landsat data as a basis for natural hydrocarbon emission estimation and photochemical oxidant model simulations in southeastern Virginia , 1983 .

[13]  Cristina Nali,et al.  Surface ozone in Pisa (Italy): A Six-year study , 1994 .

[14]  Linear regression analyses of ozone and sulphur dioxide in ambient air , 1986 .

[15]  C. Stevens.  Ozone formation in the greater Johannesburg region , 1987 .

[16]  W. A. Glasson,et al.  Hydrocarbon reactivities in the atmospheric photooxidation of nitric oxide , 1970 .

[17]  O. Massambani,et al.  Seasonal behavior of tropospheric ozone in the Sao Paulo (Brazil) metropolitan area , 1994 .

[18]  G Kuntasal,et al.  Trends and relationships of O3, NOx and HC in the south coast air basin of California. , 1987, JAPCA.