System Dynamics as a Conceptual Framework for Long-Term Defence Planning Initiatives

The paper discusses the problem of evaluating competing or comple­mentary long-term defence planning initiatives. It is agreed that the complex inter-relationships which may exist between them, and between the geographical areas in which they would be deployed, create a need for a framework for conceptual and quantitative analysis. The paper then dem­onstrates a method for formulating conceptual frameworks which clearly show the issues involved, and which can serve as agenda for discussion or as a basis for a quantitative model. The method is applied in the context of NATO’s Northern Region, giving both a diagrammatic and a quantitative simulation model, the latter being based on fictitious data. The paper closes with a brief discussion of the advantages and limitation of the method.