Effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on wheat productivity in Eastern China, singly and in combination

Abstract Air pollution and climate change are increasing threats to agricultural production and food security. Extensive studies have focused on the effect of climate change, but the interactive effects of multiple global change factors are poorly understood. Here, we incorporate the interactions between climate change, carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) into an eco-physiological mechanistic model based on three years of O3 Free-Air Concentration Elevation (O3-FACE) experiments. We then investigate the effects of climate change, elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and rising O3 concentration ([O3]) on wheat growth and productivity in eastern China in 1996–2005 (2000s) and 2016–2025 (2020s) under two climate change scenarios, singly and in combination. We find the interactive effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on wheat productivity have spatially explicit patterns; the effect of climate change dominates the general pattern, which is however subject to the large uncertainties of climate change scenarios. Wheat productivity is estimated to increase by 2.8–9.0% due to elevated [CO2] however decline by 2.8–11.7% due to rising [O3] in the 2020s, relative to the 2000s. The combined effects of CO2 and O3 are less than that of O3 only, on average by 4.6–5.2%, however with O3 damage outweighing CO2 benefit in most of the region. This study demonstrates a more biologically meaningful and appropriate approach for assessing the interactive effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on crop growth and productivity. Our findings promote the understanding on the interactive effects of multiple global change factors across contrasting climate conditions, cast doubt on the potential of CO2 fertilization effect in offsetting possible negative effect of climate change on crop productivity as suggested by many previous studies.

[1]  D. Lobell,et al.  Food security and food production systems , 2017 .

[2]  R. Nelson,et al.  Season-long elevation of ozone concentration to projected 2050 levels under fully open-air conditions substantially decreases the growth and production of soybean. , 2006, The New phytologist.

[3]  S. Long.  Virtual Special Issue on food security – greater than anticipated impacts of near‐term global atmospheric change on rice and wheat , 2012 .

[4]  S. Wilkinson,et al.  Drought, ozone, ABA and ethylene: new insights from cell to plant to community. , 2010, Plant, cell & environment.

[5]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model , 2003 .

[6]  H. Pleijel,et al.  Relationships between ozone exposure and yield loss in European wheat and potato—a comparison of concentration- and flux-based exposure indices , 2004 .

[7]  Projection of surface ozone over East Asia in 2020 , 2009 .

[8]  O. Kull,et al.  Ozone concentration in leaf intercellular air spaces is close to zero. , 1989, Plant physiology.

[9]  N. Eckardt,et al.  Timing of ozone stress and resulting status of ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase and associated net photosynthesis , 1992 .

[10]  J. Berry,et al.  A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species , 1980, Planta.

[11]  Zong-wei Feng,et al.  Effects of ground-level ozone (O3) pollution on the yields of rice and winter wheat in the Yangtze River Delta. , 2003, Journal of environmental sciences.

[12]  Håkan Pleijel,et al.  A stomatal ozone flux-response relationship to assess ozone-induced yield loss of winter wheat in subtropical China. , 2012, Environmental pollution.

[13]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure: 1. Year 2000 crop production losses and economic damage , 2011 .

[14]  D. Ort,et al.  Differential responses in two varieties of winter wheat to elevated ozone concentration under fully open‐air field conditions , 2011 .

[15]  C. Tebaldi,et al.  Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030 , 2008, Science.

[16]  H. Pleijel,et al.  Biomass reduction of juvenile birch is more strongly related to stomatal uptake of ozone than to indices based on external exposure , 2004 .

[17]  J. Porter,et al.  Ozone effects on wheat in relation to CO2: modelling short‐term and long‐term responses of leaf photosynthesis and leaf duration , 2000 .

[18]  Sanxue Ren,et al.  Effects of increased day and night temperature with supplemental infrared heating on winter wheat growth in North China , 2015 .

[19]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Global crop yield reductions due to surface ozone exposure: 2. Year 2030 potential crop production losses and economic damage under two scenarios of O3 pollution , 2011 .

[20]  H. Tian,et al.  China's crop productivity and soil carbon storage as influenced by multifactor global change , 2012, Global change biology.

[21]  Janusz Cofala,et al.  The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation , 2009 .

[22]  H. Pleijel,et al.  Ozone uptake modelling and flux-response relationships—an assessment of ozone-induced yield loss in spring wheat , 2003 .

[23]  Kun Yang,et al.  Improving estimation of hourly, daily, and monthly solar radiation by importing global data sets , 2006 .

[24]  G. Farquhar,et al.  Some relationships between the biochemistry of photosynthesis and the gas exchange of leaves , 1981, Planta.

[25]  P. Pinter,et al.  Productivity and water use of wheat under free‐air CO2 enrichment , 1995 .

[26]  C. Heald,et al.  Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution , 2014 .

[27]  Harry Harmens,et al.  Evidence of widespread effects of ozone on crops and (semi‐)natural vegetation in Europe (1990–2006) in relation to AOT40‐ and flux‐based risk maps , 2011 .

[28]  H. Pleijel,et al.  Ozone Exposure and Impacts on Vegetation in the Nordic and Baltic Countries , 2009, Ambio.

[29]  S. Long,et al.  To what extent do current and projected increases in surface ozone affect photosynthesis and stomatal conductance of trees? A meta-analytic review of the last 3 decades of experiments. , 2007, Plant, cell & environment.

[30]  Håkan Pleijel,et al.  Ozone risk assessment for agricultural crops in Europe: Further development of stomatal flux and flux–response relationships for European wheat and potato , 2007 .

[31]  He Zhang,et al.  Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981–2009 , 2014 .

[32]  James W. Jones,et al.  Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change , 2013 .

[33]  Modeling Stomatal Conductance and Photosynthesis of a Flag Leaf of Wheat under Elevated O3 Concentration , 2009 .

[34]  V. Ramanathan,et al.  Recent climate and air pollution impacts on Indian agriculture , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[35]  James W. Jones,et al.  How accurately do maize crop models simulate the interactions of atmospheric CO2 concentration levels with limited water supply on water use and yield? , 2017, European Journal of Agronomy.

[36]  Jeffrey W. White,et al.  Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production , 2015 .

[37]  K. Burkey,et al.  Crop responses to ozone: uptake, modes of action, carbon assimilation and partitioning , 2005 .

[38]  F. Tao,et al.  Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection , 2013 .

[39]  F. Piontek,et al.  A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approach , 2013 .

[40]  B. Kimball.  Crop responses to elevated CO2 and interactions with H2O, N, and temperature. , 2016, Current opinion in plant biology.

[41]  D. Simpson,et al.  A comparison of two different approaches for mapping potential ozone damage to vegetation. A model study. , 2007, Environmental pollution.

[42]  J. McGrath,et al.  An analysis of ozone damage to historical maize and soybean yields in the United States , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[43]  Zhao Zhang,et al.  Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology in China under the effects of temperature, day length and cultivar thermal characteristics , 2012 .

[44]  P Duce,et al.  An improved model for determining degree-day values from daily temperature data , 2001, International journal of biometeorology.

[45]  W. J. Shuttleworth,et al.  Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century , 2011 .

[46]  A. Richter,et al.  Satellite remote sensing of changes in NOx emissions over China during 1996–2010 , 2012 .

[47]  J. McGrath,et al.  Greater antioxidant and respiratory metabolism in field-grown soybean exposed to elevated O3 under both ambient and elevated CO2. , 2012, Plant, cell & environment.

[48]  M. Yokozawa,et al.  Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: A new process-based model development, optimization, and uncertainties analysis , 2009 .

[49]  Zhuoqi Chen,et al.  Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011 , 2015, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[50]  Jiming Hao,et al.  Verification of anthropogenic emissions of China by satellite and ground observations , 2011 .

[51]  P. Friedlingstein,et al.  Comparing concentration‐based (AOT40) and stomatal uptake (PODY) metrics for ozone risk assessment to European forests , 2016, Global change biology.

[52]  Elizabeth A. Ainsworth,et al.  Rice production in a changing climate: a meta‐analysis of responses to elevated carbon dioxide and elevated ozone concentration , 2008 .

[53]  T. Lawson,et al.  Photosynthetic and stomatal responses of potatoes grown under elevated CO2 and/or O3—results from the European CHIP-programme , 2002 .

[54]  D. Lobell,et al.  A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation , 2014 .

[55]  Gang Liu,et al.  A projection of ozone‐induced wheat production loss in China and India for the years 2000 and 2020 with exposure‐based and flux‐based approaches , 2013, Global change biology.

[56]  Denise L Mauzerall,et al.  Increasing global agricultural production by reducing ozone damages via methane emission controls and ozone-resistant cultivar selection , 2013, Global change biology.

[57]  F. Lu,et al.  Effects of elevated O₃ concentration on winter wheat and rice yields in the Yangtze River Delta, China. , 2012, Environmental pollution.

[58]  E. Paoletti,et al.  Toward a biologically significant and usable standard for ozone that will also protect plants. , 2007, Environmental pollution.

[59]  Michael H. Depledge,et al.  Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: future trends, impacts and policy implications , 2008 .

[60]  Jianguo Zhu,et al.  Effects of elevated ozone concentration on yield of four Chinese cultivars of winter wheat under fully open‐air field conditions , 2011 .

[61]  H. Akimoto,et al.  An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980-2020 , 2007 .

[62]  E. Lin,et al.  Future climate change, the agricultural water cycle, and agricultural production in China , 2003 .

[63]  E. Ainsworth,et al.  Impact of elevated ozone concentration on growth, physiology, and yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.): a meta‐analysis , 2008 .

[64]  J. Amthor.  Growth and maintenance respiration in leaves of bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) exposed to ozone in open-top chambers in the field , 1988 .

[65]  Masayuki Takigawa,et al.  Development of a One-way Nested Global-regional Air Quality Forecasting Model , 2007 .

[66]  Richard N. Arteca,et al.  Ozone‐induced oxidative stress: Mechanisms of action and reaction , 1997 .

[67]  T. Sharkey,et al.  Stomatal conductance and photosynthesis , 1982 .