How Often Does It Rain

Abstract Daily precipitation data from worldwide stations and gridded analyses and from 18 coupled global climate models are used to evaluate the models' performance in simulating the precipitation frequency, intensity, and the number of rainy days contributing to most (i.e., 67%) of the annual precipitation total. Although the models examined here are able to simulate the land precipitation amount well, most of them are unable to reproduce the spatial patterns of the precipitation frequency and intensity. For light precipitation (1–10 mm day−1), most models overestimate the frequency but produce patterns of the intensity that are in broad agreement with observations. In contrast, for heavy precipitation (>10 mm day−1), most models considerably underestimate the intensity but simulate the frequency relatively well. The average number of rainy days contributing to most of the annual precipitation is a simple index that captures the combined effects of precipitation frequency and intensity on the water supp...

[1]  J. Slingo.  The Development and Verification of A Cloud Prediction Scheme For the Ecmwf Model , 2007 .

[2]  S. Klein,et al.  GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics , 2006 .

[3]  V. Canuto,et al.  Present-Day Atmospheric Simulations Using GISS ModelE: Comparison to In Situ, Satellite, and Reanalysis Data , 2006 .

[4]  A..  A new convective adjustment scheme. Part I: Observational and theoretical basis , 2006 .

[5]  D. Easterling,et al.  Trends in Intense Precipitation in the Climate Record , 2005 .

[6]  S. Emori,et al.  Validation, parameterization dependence, and future projection of daily precipitation simulated with a high‐resolution atmospheric GCM , 2005 .

[7]  A. Hense,et al.  Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G — I. Near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure , 2005 .

[8]  J. Grandpeix,et al.  Improved mixing representation in Emanuel's convection scheme , 2004 .

[9]  D. Randall,et al.  Effects of model resolution and subgrid-scale physics on the simulation of precipitation in the continental United States , 2004 .

[10]  K. Trenberth,et al.  The Diurnal Cycle and Its Depiction in the Community Climate System Model , 2004 .

[11]  J. Janowiak,et al.  The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present) , 2003 .

[12]  K. Trenberth,et al.  The changing character of precipitation , 2003 .

[13]  K. Taylor,et al.  An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project , 2003 .

[14]  Keith W. Dixon,et al.  Review of simulations of climate variability and change with the GFDL R30 coupled climate model , 2002 .

[15]  H. B. Gordon,et al.  The CSIRO Mk3 climate system model , 2002 .

[16]  Kerry Emanuel,et al.  A Parameterization of the Cloudiness Associated with Cumulus Convection; Evaluation Using TOGA COARE Data , 2001 .

[17]  Toru Nozawa,et al.  Importance of Cumulus Parameterization for Precipitation Simulation over East Asia in June , 2001 .

[18]  Leo J. Donner,et al.  A Cumulus Parameterization Including Mass Fluxes, Convective Vertical Velocities, and Mesoscale Effects: Thermodynamic and Hydrological Aspects in a General Circulation Model , 2001 .

[19]  A. Dai.  Global Precipitation and Thunderstorm Frequencies. Part I: Seasonal and Interannual Variations , 2001 .

[20]  G. Boer,et al.  CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models , 2001 .

[21]  誠史 行本,et al.  新気象研究所結合モデル (MRI-CGCM2) , 2001 .

[22]  J. Katzfey,et al.  A Scheme for Calculation of the Liquid Fraction in Mixed-Phase Stratiform Clouds in Large-Scale Models , 2000 .

[23]  G. Meehl,et al.  Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Issues Related to Modeling Extremes in Projections of Future Climate Change* , 2000 .

[24]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Observed and model‐simulated diurnal cycles of precipitation over the contiguous United States , 1999 .

[25]  David A. Randall,et al.  A cumulus parameterization with a prognostic closure , 1998 .

[26]  Thomas R. Karl,et al.  Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the United States , 1998 .

[27]  P. Xie,et al.  Global Precipitation: A 17-Year Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations, Satellite Estimates, and Numerical Model Outputs , 1997 .

[28]  D. Gregory,et al.  Parametrization of momentum transport by convection. II: Tests in single‐column and general circulation models , 1997 .

[29]  J. Janowiak,et al.  The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) combined precipitation dataset , 1997 .

[30]  R. Dickinson,et al.  Comparison of precipitation observed over the Continental United States to that simulated by a climate model , 1996 .

[31]  P. Xie,et al.  Gauge-based monthly analysis of global land precipitation , 1996 .

[32]  J. Janowiak,et al.  A Gridded Hourly Precipitation Data Base for the United States , 1996 .

[33]  M. Claussen,et al.  The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate , 1996 .

[34]  Grant W. Petty,et al.  Frequencies and Characteristics of Global Oceanic Precipitation from Shipboard Present-Weather Reports , 1995 .

[35]  Linda O. Mearns,et al.  Analysis of daily variability of precipitation in a nested regional climate model: comparison with observations and doubled CO2 results , 1995 .

[36]  J. Hack.  Parameterization of moist convection in the National Center for Atmospheric Research community climate model (CCM2) , 1994 .

[37]  J. Royer,et al.  A statistical cloud scheme for use in an AGCM , 1993 .

[38]  M. Tiedtke,et al.  Representation of Clouds in Large-Scale Models , 1993 .

[39]  M. Yao,et al.  Efficient Cumulus Parameterization for Long-Term Climate Studies: The GISS Scheme , 1993 .

[40]  S. Moorthi,et al.  Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert - A parameterization of moist convection for general circulation models , 1992 .

[41]  K. Emanuel.  A Scheme for Representing Cumulus Convection in Large-Scale Models , 1991 .

[42]  Zhaoxin Li,et al.  Sensitivity of an atmospheric general circulation model to prescribed SST changes: feedback effects associated with the simulation of cloud optical properties , 1991 .

[43]  P. Rowntree,et al.  A Mass Flux Convection Scheme with Representation of Cloud Ensemble Characteristics and Stability-Dependent Closure , 1990 .

[44]  D. Legates,et al.  Mean seasonal and spatial variability in gauge‐corrected, global precipitation , 1990 .

[45]  R. Smith.  A scheme for predicting layer clouds and their water content in a general circulation model , 1990 .

[46]  M. Tiedtke.  A Comprehensive Mass Flux Scheme for Cumulus Parameterization in Large-Scale Models , 1989 .

[47]  J. Kristjánsson,et al.  Condensation and Cloud Parameterization Studies with a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model , 1989 .

[48]  R. Houze.  Observed structure of mesoscale convective systems and implications for large-scale heating , 1989 .

[49]  A. Betts,et al.  A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II: Single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, ATEX and arctic air‐mass data sets , 1986 .

[50]  P. Bougeault,et al.  A Simple Parameterization of the Large-Scale Effects of Cumulus Convection , 1985 .

[51]  Hilding Sundqvist,et al.  A parameterization scheme for non-convective condensation including prediction of cloud water content , 1978 .

[52]  D. Shepard.  A two-dimensional interpolation function for irregularly-spaced data , 1968, ACM National Conference.

[53]  E. Berry,et al.  Cloud Droplet Growth by Collection , 1967 .

[54]  Syukuro Manabe,et al.  SIMULATED CLIMATOLOGY OF A GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL WITH A HYDROLOGIC CYCLE II. ANALYSIS OF THE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE , 1965 .