Social vulnerability assessment for Norway: A quantitative approach

The article presents a method for quantifying social vulnerability to natural hazards in Norwegian municipalities. In the analysis, a large number of variables that each measures a facet of a municipality's susceptibility to a potential hazard are used. Using factor analysis, the information in the variables is reduced to a smaller number of factors and socioeconomic and built environment vulnerability scores for each Norwegian municipality are calculated. The resulting scores in the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index and Built Environment Index are mapped for each municipality. The results show that there are pronounced regional differences: municipalities with high socioeconomic vulnerability cluster in the northern half of Norway and parts of the south-east. The least vulnerable region is south-western Norway. Built environment vulnerability is highest in densely populated areas. By indicating municipalities with a high level of vulnerability, the method presented in this article is a useful tool in identifying regions which are likely to face significant challenges in coping with a large-scale event. The results can be used in, for example, planning mitigation efforts against extreme weather events, which are likely to be more frequent and severe in the future due to climate change.

[1]  D. Mileti.  Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States , 1999 .

[2]  B H Morrow,et al.  Identifying and mapping community vulnerability. , 1999, Disasters.

[3]  Wayne F. Velicer,et al.  Principles of Exploratory Factor Analysis. , 2006 .

[4]  N. Brooks.  Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework , 2002 .

[5]  Lars Otto Naess,et al.  Questioning Complacency: Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation in Norway , 2006, Ambio.

[6]  Thorkel C Askildsen.  Ekstremværsituasjoner og transporteffekter: Næringslivets transporttilpasninger til klimaendringer , 2004 .

[7]  J. Elstad,et al.  Associations between relative income and mortality in Norway: a register-based study. , 2006, European journal of public health.

[8]  Jerry T. Mitchell,et al.  Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Places: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina , 2000 .

[9]  Vimal Khawas.  Human Development Report 2005-2006 , 2006 .

[10]  Linda Reichwein Zientek,et al.  Book Review: Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analysis: Understanding Concepts and Applications , 2007 .

[11]  C. Lance,et al.  The Sources of Four Commonly Reported Cutoff Criteria , 2006 .

[12]  Lynn P. Nygaard,et al.  What's in a word? Conflicting interpretations of vulnerability in climate change research , 2004 .

[13]  Lindsey R. Barnes,et al.  A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters , 2008 .

[14]  Linda Sygna,et al.  Climate change in Norway: Analysis of economic and social impacts and adaptations , 2004 .

[15]  S. Krokstad.  Socioeconomic inequalities in health and disability : social epidemiology in the Nord-Trondelag health study (HUNT), Norway. , 2004 .

[16]  D. Deeg,et al.  Socioeconomic inequalities in health in older women , 2009, European journal of ageing.

[17]  B. Wisner,et al.  At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters , 1996 .

[18]  Karen O'Brien,et al.  Sårbarhetskartlegging – et utgangspunkt for klimadialog , 2003 .

[19]  Gilbert F. White,et al.  The hidden costs of coastal hazards : implications for risk assessment and mitigation , 2000 .

[20]  Ehren B. Ngo.  When Disasters and Age Collide: Reviewing Vulnerability of the Elderly , 2001 .

[21]  D. Sheridan,et al.  Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards , 2010 .

[22]  Eirik J. Førland,et al.  Utviklingen av naturulykker som følge av klimaendringer , 2007 .

[23]  Eban S. Goodstein.  Economics and the environment , 1995 .

[24]  S. Cutter,et al.  Erosion Hazard Vulnerability of US Coastal Counties , 2005 .

[25]  Yasuo Amemiya,et al.  Factor Analysis at 100:Historical Developments and Future Directions , 2003, Multivariate behavioral research.

[26]  Lynn P. Nygaard,et al.  Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses , 2007 .

[27]  K. Widaman.  Common Factors Versus Components: Principals and Principles, Errors and Misconceptions , 2007 .

[28]  S. Sanders,et al.  Chapter 2 Lessons Learned on Forced Relocation of Older Adults , 2004 .

[29]  Linda Sygna,et al.  Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway , 2004 .

[30]  N. Das.  Human Development Report 2007/2008 Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World, UNDP, New York , 2009 .

[31]  H. A. Aaheim,et al.  Konsekvenser av klimaendringer, tilpasning og sårbarhet i Norge. Rapport til Klimatilpasningsutvalget , 2009 .

[32]  Alice Fothergill,et al.  Gender, Risk, and Disaster , 1996, International Journal of Mass Emergencies & Disasters.

[33]  Susan L. Cutter,et al.  Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management Vulnerability of U . S . Cities to Environmental Hazards , 2011 .

[34]  R. Corell,et al.  Saami reindeer pastoralism under climate change: Applying a generalized framework for vulnerability studies to a sub-arctic social–ecological system , 2007 .

[35]  S. Cutter.  Vulnerability to environmental hazards , 1996 .

[36]  Mark A. Smith,et al.  Towards a European Union Gender Equality Index , 2009 .

[37]  K. Zickfeld,et al.  Semiquantitative Assessment of Regional Climate Vulnerability: The North-Rhine Westphalia Study , 2006 .

[38]  Wayne F. Velicer,et al.  Construct Explication through Factor or Component Analysis: A Review and Evaluation of Alternative Procedures for Determining the Number of Factors or Components , 2000 .

[39]  D. Ball.  Regions of Risk: a Geographical Introduction to Disasters , 1998 .

[40]  Suzanne Lacasse,et al.  International Centre for Geohazards ( ICG ) : Assessment , prevention and mitigation of geohazards , 2004 .

[41]  Laura D'Andrea Tyson,et al.  The global gender gap report , 2006 .

[42]  C Loehlin John,et al.  Latent variable models: an introduction to factor, path, and structural analysis , 1986 .