Mixed‐mode travel demand forecasting techniques

From an extensive review of literature covering 34 cases where mixed‐mode policies had been used, ranging from strategic area wide to local studies, it was concluded that none of the techniques adopted had adequately dealt with the particular problem of mixed modes. Two philosophies were identified, a market research approach and formal simulation modelling. The latter ranged from coarse zonal diversion curve models, to individual based multi modal split models. The limited information given in the reports prevented making practical comparisons between the models. Monte‐Carlo simulation was used in order to look in more depth at the multi‐modal choice model structures encountered in the review. It was found that the multi‐nomial logit, which is the most commonly used model, was quite robust but performed badly when modal costs were highly correlated, a case which may occur far too often.

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