Viral Phylodynamics

Viral phylodynamics is defined as the study of how epidemiological, immunological, and evolutionary processes act and potentially interact to shape viral phylogenies. Since the coining of the term in 2004, research on viral phylodynamics has focused on transmission dynamics in an effort to shed light on how these dynamics impact viral genetic variation. Transmission dynamics can be considered at the level of cells within an infected host, individual hosts within a population, or entire populations of hosts. Many viruses, especially RNA viruses, rapidly accumulate genetic variation because of short generation times and high mutation rates. Patterns of viral genetic variation are therefore heavily influenced by how quickly transmission occurs and by which entities transmit to one another. Patterns of viral genetic variation will also be affected by selection acting on viral phenotypes. Although viruses can differ with respect to many phenotypes, phylodynamic studies have to date tended to focus on a limited number of viral phenotypes. These include virulence phenotypes, phenotypes associated with viral transmissibility, cell or tissue tropism phenotypes, and antigenic phenotypes that can facilitate escape from host immunity. Due to the impact that transmission dynamics and selection can have on viral genetic variation, viral phylogenies can therefore be used to investigate important epidemiological, immunological, and evolutionary processes, such as epidemic spread [2], spatio-temporal dynamics including metapopulation dynamics [3], zoonotic transmission, tissue tropism [4], and antigenic drift [5]. The quantitative investigation of these processes through the consideration of viral phylogenies is the central aim of viral phylodynamics.

[1]  Dinis Gökaydin,et al.  The reinfection threshold regulates pathogen diversity: the case of influenza , 2007, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[2]  Alexei J Drummond,et al.  Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data. , 2002, Genetics.

[3]  Andrew Rambaut,et al.  Comparative population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes B and C: subtype-specific differences in patterns of epidemic growth. , 2005, Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases.

[4]  A. Rambaut,et al.  Episodic Sexual Transmission of HIV Revealed by Molecular Phylodynamics , 2008, PLoS medicine.

[5]  Matthias Cavassini,et al.  Molecular epidemiology reveals long-term changes in HIV type 1 subtype B transmission in Switzerland. , 2010, The Journal of infectious diseases.

[6]  L. Oxburgh,et al.  Cocirculation of Two Distinct Lineages of Equine Influenza Virus Subtype H3N8 , 1999, Journal of Clinical Microbiology.

[7]  Oliver Laeyendecker,et al.  Transmission Selects for HIV-1 Strains of Intermediate Virulence: A Modelling Approach , 2011, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[8]  J. Baeten,et al.  Measuring the infectiousness of persons with HIV-1: opportunities for preventing sexual HIV-1 transmission. , 2003, Current HIV research.

[9]  W. Fitch,et al.  Long term trends in the evolution of H(3) HA1 human influenza type A. , 1997, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[10]  J. Wakeley Coalescent Theory: An Introduction , 2008 .

[11]  Erik M. Volz,et al.  Viral phylodynamics and the search for an ‘effective number of infections’ , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[12]  C. Viboud,et al.  Explorer The genomic and epidemiological dynamics of human influenza A virus , 2016 .

[13]  Elizabeth C. Theil,et al.  Epochal Evolution Shapes the Phylodynamics of Interpandemic Influenza A (H3N2) in Humans , 2006, Science.

[14]  T. Déirdre Hollingsworth,et al.  Variation in HIV-1 set-point viral load: Epidemiological analysis and an evolutionary hypothesis , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[15]  Steven Wolinsky,et al.  Direct evidence of extensive diversity of HIV-1 in Kinshasa by 1960 , 2008, Nature.

[16]  S. Takada,et al.  Quantitative analysis of genomic polymorphism of herpes simplex virus type 1 strains from six countries: studies of molecular evolution and molecular epidemiology of the virus. , 1994, The Journal of general virology.

[17]  S. Hammer,et al.  The challenge of HIV-1 subtype diversity. , 2008, The New England journal of medicine.

[18]  Alexei J. Drummond,et al.  Phylogenetic and epidemic modeling of rapidly evolving infectious diseases , 2011, Infection, Genetics and Evolution.

[19]  J Theiler,et al.  Using human immunodeficiency virus type 1 sequences to infer historical features of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic and human immunodeficiency virus evolution. , 2001, Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences.

[20]  P. Kaye Infectious diseases of humans: Dynamics and control , 1993 .

[21]  A. Futschik,et al.  A Novel Approach for Choosing Summary Statistics in Approximate Bayesian Computation , 2012, Genetics.

[22]  P Donnelly,et al.  Coalescents and genealogical structure under neutrality. , 1995, Annual review of genetics.

[23]  Dennis Maletich Junqueira,et al.  Reviewing the History of HIV-1: Spread of Subtype B in the Americas , 2011, PloS one.

[24]  Alexei J. Drummond,et al.  Bayesian Phylogeography Finds Its Roots , 2009, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[25]  J. Drake A constant rate of spontaneous mutation in DNA-based microbes. , 1991, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[26]  Leslie A Real,et al.  A high-resolution genetic signature of demographic and spatial expansion in epizootic rabies virus , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[27]  Andrew R. Francis,et al.  The epidemiological fitness cost of drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[28]  E. Lyons,et al.  Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings , 2009, Science.

[29]  Sergei L. Kosakovsky Pond,et al.  Phylodynamics of Infectious Disease Epidemics , 2009, Genetics.

[30]  Trevor Bedford,et al.  Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus , 2011, BMC Biology.

[31]  Edward C Holmes,et al.  Avian influenza virus exhibits rapid evolutionary dynamics. , 2006, Molecular biology and evolution.

[32]  A. Lapedes,et al.  Mapping the Antigenic and Genetic Evolution of Influenza Virus , 2004, Science.

[33]  B. Haynes,et al.  Acute HIV-1 Infection. , 2011, The New England journal of medicine.

[34]  Mark M. Tanaka,et al.  Sequential Monte Carlo without likelihoods , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[35]  O. Pybus,et al.  Bayesian coalescent inference of past population dynamics from molecular sequences. , 2005, Molecular biology and evolution.

[36]  G. Barigazzi,et al.  Antigenic and Genetic Evolution of Swine Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses in Europe , 2007, Journal of Virology.

[37]  E. Holmes,et al.  Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences. , 1999, Genetics.

[38]  Jacco Wallinga,et al.  Molecular sequence data of hepatitis B virus and genetic diversity after vaccination. , 2009, American journal of epidemiology.

[39]  M. Suchard,et al.  Phylogeography takes a relaxed random walk in continuous space and time. , 2010, Molecular biology and evolution.

[40]  Katia Koelle,et al.  Rates of coalescence for common epidemiological models at equilibrium , 2012, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[41]  O. Pybus,et al.  Unifying the Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Pathogens , 2004, Science.

[42]  Richard H Scheuermann,et al.  Influenza Research Database: an integrated bioinformatics resource for influenza research and surveillance , 2012, Influenza and other respiratory viruses.

[43]  Bryan T Grenfell,et al.  Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[44]  B. Grenfell,et al.  Protocols for sampling viral sequences to study epidemic dynamics , 2010, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[45]  Huldrych F. Günthard,et al.  Inferring Epidemic Contact Structure from Phylogenetic Trees , 2012, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[46]  M. Pascual,et al.  Global Migration Dynamics Underlie Evolution and Persistence of Human Influenza A (H3N2) , 2010, PLoS pathogens.

[47]  P. E. Kopp,et al.  Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence , 2005, Nature.

[48]  Brian G. Williams,et al.  Clinical Prognostic Value of RNA Viral Load and CD4 Cell Counts during Untreated HIV-1 Infection—A Quantitative Review , 2009, PLoS ONE.

[49]  Edward C Holmes,et al.  Frequent inter-species transmission and geographic subdivision in avian influenza viruses from wild birds. , 2009, Virology.

[50]  Thomas B. Kepler,et al.  A two-tiered model for simulating the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving viruses, with an application to influenza , 2010, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[51]  Yi Guan,et al.  Temporally structured metapopulation dynamics and persistence of influenza A H3N2 virus in humans , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[52]  Erik M. Volz,et al.  Simple Epidemiological Dynamics Explain Phylogenetic Clustering of HIV from Patients with Recent Infection , 2012, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[53]  R. Webster,et al.  Evolution and ecology of influenza A viruses. , 1992, Current topics in microbiology and immunology.

[54]  David Baltimore,et al.  Permissive Secondary Mutations Enable the Evolution of Influenza Oseltamivir Resistance , 2010, Science.

[55]  Rebecca R. Gray,et al.  A New Evolutionary Model for Hepatitis C Virus Chronic Infection , 2012, PLoS pathogens.

[56]  K. Strimmer,et al.  Exploring the demographic history of DNA sequences using the generalized skyline plot. , 2001, Molecular biology and evolution.

[57]  Cécile Viboud,et al.  Global Patterns in Seasonal Activity of Influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B from 1997 to 2005: Viral Coexistence and Latitudinal Gradients , 2007, PloS one.

[58]  A. Kendal,et al.  Antigenic and genetic characterization of the haemagglutinins of recent cocirculating strains of influenza B virus. , 1992, The Journal of general virology.

[59]  Gary F. McCracken,et al.  Host Phylogeny Constrains Cross-Species Emergence and Establishment of Rabies Virus in Bats , 2010, Science.

[60]  Neff Walker,et al.  Estimated Global Distribution and Regional Spread of HIV‐1 Genetic Subtypes in the Year 2000 , 2002, Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes.

[61]  Rustom Antia,et al.  The global spread of drug-resistant influenza , 2012, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[62]  Andrew W Park,et al.  Quantifying the Impact of Immune Escape on Transmission Dynamics of Influenza , 2009, Science.

[63]  Trevor Bedford,et al.  Strength and tempo of selection revealed in viral gene genealogies , 2011, BMC Evolutionary Biology.

[64]  E. Fenyö,et al.  Biological correlates of HIV‐1 heterosexual transmission , 1997, AIDS.

[65]  W. Fitch,et al.  Positive selection on the H3 hemagglutinin gene of human influenza virus A. , 1999, Molecular biology and evolution.

[66]  Jacco Wallinga,et al.  Van Ballegooijen et al. Respond to “Evaluating Vaccination Programs Using Genetic Sequence Data” , 2009 .

[67]  N. Ferguson,et al.  Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution , 2003, Nature.

[68]  O. Pybus,et al.  The Epidemic Behavior of the Hepatitis C Virus , 2001, Science.

[69]  Sergei L. Kosakovsky Pond,et al.  Synonymous Substitution Rates Predict HIV Disease Progression as a Result of Underlying Replication Dynamics , 2007, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[70]  B. Keele,et al.  Identifying and characterizing recently transmitted viruses , 2010, Current opinion in HIV and AIDS.

[71]  P. Lemey,et al.  The Molecular Population Genetics of HIV-1 Group O , 2004, Genetics.

[72]  Erik M. Volz,et al.  Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality , 2012, Genetics.

[73]  K. Crandall,et al.  The causes and consequences of HIV evolution , 2004, Nature Reviews Genetics.

[74]  Colin A. Russell,et al.  The Global Circulation of Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) Viruses , 2008, Science.

[75]  Cecile Viboud,et al.  Long intervals of stasis punctuated by bursts of positive selection in the seasonal evolution of influenza A virus , 2006, Biology Direct.

[76]  Samir Bhatt,et al.  The genomic rate of molecular adaptation of the human influenza A virus. , 2011, Molecular biology and evolution.

[77]  Anne-Mieke Vandamme,et al.  U.S. Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Epidemic: Date of Origin, Population History, and Characterization of Early Strains , 2003, Journal of Virology.

[78]  J. Daly,et al.  Antigenic and genetic evolution of equine H3N8 influenza A viruses. , 1996, The Journal of general virology.

[79]  T. Stadler Sampling-through-time in birth-death trees. , 2010, Journal of theoretical biology.

[80]  P. Lemey,et al.  HIV evolutionary dynamics within and among hosts. , 2006, AIDS reviews.

[81]  A. Rodrigo,et al.  The inference of stepwise changes in substitution rates using serial sequence samples. , 2001, Molecular biology and evolution.

[82]  J. Drake Rates of spontaneous mutation among RNA viruses. , 1993, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[83]  Christl A. Donnelly,et al.  HIV-1 Transmitting Couples Have Similar Viral Load Set-Points in Rakai, Uganda , 2010, PLoS pathogens.