ESTIMATING THE CAPACITY VALUE AND PEAK-SHAVING POTENTIAL OF PHOTOVOLTAICS IN ONTARIO: A CASE-STUDY FOR THE CITY OF TORONTO

Hourly electric power demand data in Toronto from 2000 to 2006 was analyzed along with coincident, simulated hourly photovoltaic (PV) power generation to quantify PV capacity value and seasonal peak-shaving. Three different methods were used to assess PV capacity value, and their results were compared. Results indicate that PV power generation is strongly correlated with demand: PV output increases with increasing demand, reaching about 45% of its nominal value during peak demand hours. Likewise, the PV capacity value obtained for low grid penetration is about 40% for all three methods, considerably higher than the 11% yearly average capacity factor. Yearly variations in capacity value show a strong correlation with variations in the demand summer to winter peak ratio (SWPR).