Post-decision search in repeated and variable environments

When faced with a decision, people collect information to help them decide. Though it may seem unnecessary, people often continue to search for information about alternatives after they have already chosen an option, even if this choice is irreversible (e.g., checking out other cars after just purchasing one). While previous post-decision search studies focused on “one-shot†decisions and highlighted its irrational aspects, here we explore the possible benefits of post-decision search in the long run. We use a simple search task in which participants repeatedly decide whether to select the current alternative or continue to search for a better alternative. In a preliminary study we find that participants indeed conduct post-decision search even in unique environments, where information about forgone options cannot be used in future choices. In the main studies exposure to post-decision information was manipulated directly in unique environments, and was found to lead to better performance. The source of the observed improvement was further investigated with an explicit strategy elicitation methodology. We find that following exposure to post-decision information, people collect more data before generating thresholds. Thus, although post-decision search in unique environments might appear redundant, our results suggest it can help decision makers to modify their strategy and improve their future choices.

[1]  Thomas S. Ferguson,et al.  Who Solved the Secretary Problem , 1989 .

[2]  James H. Donnelly,et al.  Post-Purchase Reinforcement and Back-Out Behavior , 1970 .

[3]  Peter R. Dickson,et al.  The Price Knowledge and Search of Supermarket Shoppers , 1990 .

[4]  Amy Summerville,et al.  Counterfactual Seeking , 2011, Personality & social psychology bulletin.

[5]  John V. Petrocelli,et al.  Dysfunctional counterfactual thinking: When simulating alternatives to reality impedes experiential learning , 2013 .

[6]  Alan Schwartz,et al.  Avoiding Future Regret in Purchase-Timing Decisions , 2001 .

[7]  Alison King Chung Lo,et al.  Consumer Sequential Search: Not Enough or Too Much? , 2003 .

[8]  Student,et al.  PSYCHOLOGY OF PREFERENCES , 1982, Pediatrics.

[9]  Yale M. Braunstein,et al.  ECONOMIC SEARCH: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY , 1981 .

[10]  A. Roets,et al.  Item selection and validation of a brief, 15-item version of the need for closure scale , 2011 .

[11]  F. Mosteller,et al.  Recognizing the Maximum of a Sequence , 1966 .

[12]  Marcel Zeelenberg,et al.  When and why do we want to know? How experienced regret promotes post‐decision information search , 2007 .

[13]  Stephan Seiler The impact of search costs on consumer behavior: A dynamic approach , 2013 .

[14]  Steven J. Sherman,et al.  Dysfunctional implications of counterfactual thinking: When alternatives to reality fail us. , 1995 .

[15]  Robert L. Goldstone,et al.  Learning near-optimal search in a minimal explore/exploit task , 2011, CogSci.

[16]  N. Roese,et al.  The Functional Theory of Counterfactual Thinking , 2008, Personality and social psychology review : an official journal of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

[17]  Terry Connolly,et al.  Myopic Regret Avoidance : Feedback Avoidance and Learning in Repeated Decision Making , 2009 .

[18]  Jonathan Baron,et al.  Departures from optimal stopping in an anagram task , 1991 .

[19]  Marcel Zeelenberg,et al.  A Theory of Regret Regulation 1.0 , 2007 .

[20]  Marcel Zeelenberg,et al.  The use of crying over spilled milk: a note on the rationality and functionality of regret , 1999 .

[21]  Marcel Zeelenberg,et al.  When ignorance is not bliss: How feelings of discomfort promote the search for negative information , 2008 .

[22]  J. Cacioppo,et al.  The need for cognition. , 1982 .

[23]  Mirko Kremer,et al.  Sequential Search and Learning from Rank Feedback: Theory and Experimental Evidence , 2014, Manag. Sci..

[24]  Darryl A. Seale,et al.  Sequential Decision Making with Relative Ranks: An Experimental Investigation of the "Secretary Problem"> , 1997 .

[25]  Darryl A. Seale,et al.  Optimal stopping behavior with relative ranks: the secretary problem with unknown population size , 2000 .

[26]  Kinneret Teodorescu,et al.  On the Decision to Explore New Alternatives: The Coexistence of Under‐ and Over‐exploration , 2014 .

[27]  B. Schwartz,et al.  Maximizing Versus Satisficing : Happiness Is a Matter of Choice , 2002 .

[28]  I. Guttman,et al.  Postdecision exposure to relevant information. , 1957, Journal of abnormal psychology.

[29]  Michael D. Lee,et al.  Decision-Making on the Full Information Secretary Problem , 2004 .

[30]  L. V. Jones,et al.  Decision making in a sequential search task , 1967 .

[31]  Ryan O. Murphy,et al.  Sequential Observation and Selection with Rank-Dependent Payoffs: An Experimental Study , 2006, Manag. Sci..

[32]  Tom Stafford,et al.  When natural selection should optimize speed-accuracy trade-offs , 2014, Front. Neurosci..

[33]  Thomas T. Hills,et al.  Cognitive search : evolution, algorithms, and the brain , 2012 .

[34]  J. S. Adams,et al.  Reduction of cognitive dissonance by seeking consonant information. , 1961, Journal of abnormal and social psychology.

[35]  B. Verplanken,et al.  Need for cognition and external information search effort , 1992 .

[36]  I. J. Myung,et al.  An Adaptive Approach to Human Decision Making : Learning Theory , Decision Theory , and Human Performance , 2004 .

[37]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Fast and frugal heuristics: The tools of bounded rationality , 2004 .

[38]  Zsolt Sandor,et al.  Consumer Search and Prices in the Automobile Market , 2015, The Review of Economic Studies.

[39]  P. Freeman The Secretary Problem and its Extensions: A Review , 1983 .

[40]  Amnon Rapoport,et al.  Choice behavior in an optional stopping task , 1970 .

[41]  Glenn J. Browne,et al.  Stopping rule use during information search in design problems , 2004 .

[42]  Marijn van Wingerden,et al.  Choice Behavior , 2014, Encyclopedia of Computational Neuroscience.

[43]  M. Usher,et al.  Absolutely relative or relatively absolute: violations of value invariance in human decision making , 2016, Psychonomic bulletin & review.

[44]  Thomas T. Hills,et al.  Search in External and Internal Spaces , 2008, Psychological science.