Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs) using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA). The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15°K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur.

[1]  J. Christensen,et al.  Arctic sea ice reduction and European cold winters in CMIP5 climate change experiments , 2012 .

[2]  T. Koenigk,et al.  Ocean heat transport into the Arctic in the twentieth and twenty-first century in EC-Earth , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[3]  J. Jungclaus,et al.  Variability of Fram Strait sea ice export: causes, impacts and feedbacks in a coupled climate model , 2006 .

[4]  Karl-Göran Karlsson,et al.  Quantifying the clear-sky temperature inversion frequency and strength over the Arctic Ocean during summer and winter seasons from AIRS profiles , 2010 .

[5]  A. Weaver,et al.  Factors contributing to diurnal temperature range trends in twentieth and twenty-first century simulations of the CCCma coupled model , 2003 .

[6]  I. Shkolnik,et al.  Cyclonic activity in high latitudes as simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model: added value and uncertainties , 2013 .

[7]  Axel Schweiger,et al.  Evaluation of Seven Different Atmospheric Reanalysis Products in the Arctic , 2014 .

[8]  Josefino C. Comiso,et al.  Arctic warming signals from satellite observations , 2006 .

[9]  S. Häkkinen.  A Simulation of Thermohaline Effects of a Great Salinity Anomaly , 1999 .

[10]  Muyin Wang,et al.  A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models , 2012 .

[11]  M. Holland,et al.  Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast , 2007 .

[12]  K. Dethloff,et al.  The Recent Decline of the Arctic Summer Sea-Ice Cover in the Context of Internal Climate Variability , 2008 .

[13]  D. Jacob,et al.  Simulating Arctic sea ice variability with a coupled regional atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model , 2005 .

[14]  H. L. Miller,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[15]  E. Fetzer,et al.  The thermodynamic state of the Arctic atmosphere observed by AIRS: comparisons during the record minimum sea ice extents of 2007 and 2012 , 2013 .

[16]  M. Saier,et al.  Climate Change, 2007 , 2007 .

[17]  M. Latif,et al.  Arctic-North Atlantic Interactions and Multidecadal Variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation , 2005 .

[18]  Julienne C. Stroeve,et al.  The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models , 2010 .

[19]  F. Giorgi,et al.  Precipitation Climatology in an Ensemble of CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Simulations , 2012 .

[20]  Klaus Wyser,et al.  ‘Modelling the Arctic Boundary Layer: An Evaluation of Six Arcmip Regional-Scale Models using Data from the Sheba Project’ , 2005 .

[21]  K. Wyser,et al.  The Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: model description and performance , 2011 .

[22]  C. Symon,et al.  Arctic climate impact assessment , 2005 .

[23]  Clara Deser,et al.  Arctic Inversion Strength in Climate Models , 2011 .

[24]  U. Willén,et al.  The Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model part I: model climatology and performance for the present climate over Europe. , 2004, Ambio.

[25]  I. Simmonds,et al.  The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification , 2010, Nature.

[26]  K. Dethloff,et al.  Simulated circum-Arctic climate changes by the end of the 21st century , 2008 .

[27]  M. Holland,et al.  The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification , 2008 .

[28]  Wilco Hazeleger,et al.  Arctic winter warming amplified by the thermal inversion and consequent low infrared cooling to space , 2011 .

[29]  Mojib Latif,et al.  Formation and propagation of great salinity anomalies , 2003 .

[30]  John E. Walsh,et al.  The Atmospheric Response to Realistic Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies in an AGCM during Winter. , 2004 .

[31]  David A. Robinson,et al.  Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922–2010 including an assessment of uncertainty , 2010 .

[32]  M. Holland,et al.  Twenty-First-Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4 , 2012 .

[33]  Karl-Göran Karlsson,et al.  CLARA-A1: a cloud, albedo, and radiation dataset from 28 yr of global AVHRR data , 2013 .

[34]  S. Solomon.  The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[35]  K. Karlsson,et al.  Summer Sea Ice Albedo in the Arctic in CMIP5 models , 2013 .

[36]  Josefino C. Comiso,et al.  Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover , 2008 .

[37]  T. Manninen,et al.  CLARA-SAL: a global 28 yr timeseries of Earth's black-sky surface albedo , 2012 .

[38]  H. Tuomenvirta,et al.  Trends in Nordic and Arctic Temperature Extremes and Ranges , 2000 .

[39]  F. Giorgi,et al.  Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework , 2009 .

[40]  Jonathan D. W. Kahl,et al.  Low-Level Temperature Inversions of the Eurasian Arctic and Comparisons with Soviet Drifting Station Data , 1992 .

[41]  K. Wyser,et al.  Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model , 2010 .

[42]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Effects of Clouds, Soil Moisture, Precipitation, and Water Vapor on Diurnal Temperature Range , 1999 .

[43]  G. Nikulin,et al.  Arctic future scenario experiments with a coupled regional climate model , 2011 .

[44]  John E. Walsh,et al.  Simulations of Arctic Temperature and Pressure by Global Coupled Models , 2007 .

[45]  John E. Walsh,et al.  The Atmospheric Response to Realistic Reduced Summer Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies , 2013 .

[46]  E. Heise,et al.  Implementation of the lake parameterisation scheme FLake into the numerical weather prediction model COSMO , 2010 .

[47]  S. Vavrus.  Simulation of 21st century Arctic climate change in CCSM4 , 2011 .

[48]  V. Petoukhov,et al.  A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents , 2010 .

[49]  J. Curry,et al.  Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[50]  M. Holland,et al.  Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice , 2012 .

[51]  Minghuai Wang,et al.  Polar amplification in a coupled climate model with locked albedo , 2009 .

[52]  T. Koenigk,et al.  Impacts of using spectral nudging on regional climate model RCA4 simulations of the Arctic , 2013 .

[53]  B. A. Conway,et al.  The effects of laforin, malin, Stbd1, and Ptg deficiencies on heart glycogen levels in Pompe disease mouse models , 2015 .

[54]  Klaus Dethloff,et al.  Influence of sea ice on the atmosphere: A study with an Arctic atmospheric regional climate model , 2006 .

[55]  Karl-Göran Karlsson,et al.  Summer Arctic sea ice albedo in CMIP5 models , 2014 .

[56]  C. Deser,et al.  The Effects of North Atlantic SST and Sea Ice Anomalies on the Winter Circulation in CCM3. Part II: Direct and Indirect Components of the Response , 2004 .

[57]  C. Deser,et al.  The Effects of North Atlantic SST and Sea Ice Anomalies on the Winter Circulation in CCM3. Part I: Main Features and Storm Track Characteristics of the Response , 2004 .

[58]  Cecilia M. Bitz,et al.  Atmospheric Circulation and Its Effect on Arctic Sea Ice in CCSM3 Simulations at Medium and High Resolution , 2006 .

[59]  Muyin Wang,et al.  Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice , 2010 .

[60]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[61]  Cecilia M. Bitz,et al.  Sea Ice Response to Wind Forcing from AMIP Models , 2001 .

[62]  H. Storch,et al.  Statistical Analysis in Climate Research , 2000 .

[63]  T. Koenigk,et al.  Arctic rapid sea ice loss events in regional coupled climate scenario experiments , 2012 .

[64]  John J. Cassano,et al.  Performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Month-Long Pan-Arctic Simulations , 2011 .

[65]  J. Cohen,et al.  Analysis of a link between fall Arctic sea ice concentration and atmospheric patterns in the following winter , 2012 .

[66]  J. Karlsson,et al.  Consequences of poor representation of Arctic sea‐ice albedo and cloud‐radiation interactions in the CMIP5 model ensemble , 2013 .

[67]  Martijn Gough.  Climate change , 2009, Canadian Medical Association Journal.

[68]  Ulf Hansson,et al.  21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations , 2011 .

[69]  Muyin Wang,et al.  A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? , 2009 .

[70]  U. Willén,et al.  Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[71]  V. Kattsov,et al.  Simulation and Projection of Arctic Freshwater Budget Components by the IPCC AR4 Global Climate Models , 2007 .

[72]  J. Kay,et al.  The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis , 2012, Climatic Change.

[73]  J. Curry,et al.  Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) , 1995 .

[74]  CLARA-A1: the CM SAF cloud, albedo and radiation dataset from 28 yr of global AVHRR data , 2013 .