Statistics for the evaluation and comparison of models

Procedures that may be used to evaluate the operational performance of a wide spectrum of geophysical models are introduced. Primarily using a complementary set of difference measures, both model accuracy and precision can be meaningfully estimated, regardless of whether the model predictions are manifested as scalars, directions, or vectors. It is additionally suggested that the reliability of the accuracy and precision measures can be determined from bootstrap estimates of confidence and significance. Recommended procedures are illustrated with a comparative evaluation of two models that estimate wind velocity over the South Atlantic Bight.

[1]  Douglas G. Fox,et al.  Uncertainty in Air Quality Modeling , 1984 .

[2]  Cort J. Willmott,et al.  On the Evaluation of Model Performance in Physical Geography , 1984 .

[3]  Rudolph W. Preisendorfer,et al.  Numerical Model-Reality Intercomparison Tests Using Small-Sample Statistics , 1983 .

[4]  L. R. Brody,et al.  Identification of Systematic Errors in a Numerical Weather Forecast , 1983 .

[5]  L. Pietrafesa,et al.  Kinematics and Correlation of the Surface Wind Field in the , 1983 .

[6]  B. Efron,et al.  A Leisurely Look at the Bootstrap, the Jackknife, and , 1983 .

[7]  C. Willmott.  Some Comments on the Evaluation of Model Performance , 1982 .

[8]  Neil D. Gordon.  Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts , 1982 .

[9]  B. Efron.  Nonparametric estimates of standard error: The jackknife, the bootstrap and other methods , 1981 .

[10]  S. Trivikrama Rao,et al.  On the Comparative Assessment of the Performance of Air Quality Models , 1981 .

[11]  Douglas G. Fox,et al.  Judging Air Quality Model Performance , 1981 .

[12]  B. Efron.  Nonparametric standard errors and confidence intervals , 1981 .

[13]  Rafael L. Bras,et al.  Multivariate short-term rainfall prediction , 1980 .

[14]  Richard H. McCuen,et al.  A proposed index for comparing hydrographs , 1975 .

[15]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[16]  P. R. Bevington,et al.  Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences , 1969 .