Real-time observation and prediction of physical processes in a typhoon-affected lake

A nowcasting system integrating observations and a numerical model was developed to better understand the spatial distributions and temporal variations in the dynamics of a small, subtropical lake occasionally influenced by severe rainstorms. The nowcasting system was used to monitor real-time meteorological conditions and thermal structures, to provide spatial information on the thermal and flow dynamics from model predictions, and to compare the predictions with the observations. The system was also able to determine whether the instruments collecting field data were performing correctly using telemetry operations. The nowcasting system was initially operated in the spring of 2009 in Yuan-Yang Lake, Taiwan. Rainstorm-induced mixing occurred due to Typhoon Morakot during August 7–9, 2009. The mixing was observed by the instruments, and the spatial distributions and temporal variations during the mixing were successfully predicted by the three-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model. A quantitative comparison of the energy balances among the heat, wind, and water inflow inputs to the lake implied that the typhoon-induced mixing was primarily caused by strong winds. The model predictions showed that the lake experienced mixing and flooding (large amounts of inflow/outflow discharges), resulting in homogenous temperatures and flows that moved to the outlet of the lake.

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