An Elementary Approach to Thinking under Uncertainty: A Prototype Text

Abstract : This technical report is a prototype elementary textbook for teaching reasoning processes and decision making under conditions of uncertainty. It is written at an introductory level and designed to be usable for nontechnical personnel. The text is based on a translation of a Hebrew book and adapted for the American student audience. The original material is based on the study of intuitive thought processes and capitalizes on information about cognitive biases that typically lead to faulty decisions and judgments. Methods are outlined for processing partial unreliable information in the following categories: when choosing the most likely among a set of possible solutions; when estimating a numerical value as the solution in a quantitative problem; when assessing the probability of occurrence of an event; and when estimating the chances of an event in exceptional problems. Practice problems are provided at the end of most chapters. In addition, a list of technical references and an outline of related topics for further study are presented at the conclusion of the text. Military command, control, and intelligence personnel should find this text applicable and easily adapted for the training of human information processing and decision making.

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