Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns

Using seven single‐model ensembles and the two multimodel ensembles CMIP5 and CMIP6, we show that observed and simulated trends in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns are globally consistent when accounting for internal variability. Some individual ensemble members simulate trends in large‐scale SST patterns that closely resemble the observed ones. Observed regional trends that lie at the outer edge of the models' internal variability range allow two nonexclusive interpretations: (a) Observed trends are unusual realizations of the Earth's possible behavior and/or (b) the models are systematically biased but large internal variability leads to some good matches with the observations. The existing range of multidecadal SST trends is influenced more strongly by large internal variability than by differences in the model formulation or the observational data sets.

[1]  S. Bony,et al.  Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR Climate Model , 2020, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

[2]  J. Randerson,et al.  Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects , 2020, Nature Climate Change.

[3]  Christopher J. Smith,et al.  Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models , 2020, Science Advances.

[4]  T. Andrews,et al.  Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models , 2020, Geophysical Research Letters.

[5]  D. Abbot,et al.  Spatial Radiative Feedbacks from Internal Variability Using Multiple Regression , 2018, Journal of Climate.

[6]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Causes of climate change over the historical record , 2019, Environmental Research Letters.

[7]  Christopher J. Smith,et al.  Latest climate models confirm need for urgent mitigation , 2019, Nature Climate Change.

[8]  N. Maher,et al.  How large does a large ensemble need to be? , 2019, Earth System Dynamics.

[9]  D. Battisti,et al.  Attributing Historical and Future Evolution of Radiative Feedbacks to Regional Warming Patterns using a Green’s Function Approach: The Preeminence of the Western Pacific , 2019, Journal of Climate.

[10]  N. Gillett,et al.  The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3) , 2019, Geoscientific Model Development.

[11]  R. Seager,et al.  Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases , 2019, Nature Climate Change.

[12]  B. Stevens,et al.  The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability , 2019, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

[13]  E. Ruggieri,et al.  Change point analysis of global temperature records , 2019, International Journal of Climatology.

[14]  Xiaosong Yang,et al.  Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends , 2018, Nature Climate Change.

[15]  C. Grimm,et al.  Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models , 2018, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.

[16]  P. Kushner,et al.  No Impact of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Early 21st Century Global Temperature Trends in a Large Initial‐Condition Ensemble , 2018, Geophysical Research Letters.

[17]  Jonathan M. Gregory,et al.  Accounting for Changing Temperature Patterns Increases Historical Estimates of Climate Sensitivity , 2018, Geophysical Research Letters.

[18]  C. Deser,et al.  Internal Variability and Regional Climate Trends in an Observational Large Ensemble , 2018, Journal of Climate.

[19]  Dai Yamazaki,et al.  Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6 , 2018, Geoscientific Model Development.

[20]  S. Coats,et al.  A Role for the Equatorial Undercurrent in the Ocean Dynamical Thermostat , 2018, Journal of Climate.

[21]  M. England,et al.  On the Choice of Ensemble Mean for Estimating the Forced Signal in the Presence of Internal Variability , 2018, Journal of Climate.

[22]  G. Hegerl,et al.  The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences , 2018, Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change.

[23]  G. Schmidt,et al.  Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations , 2018 .

[24]  J. Marshall,et al.  Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends , 2018 .

[25]  P. Cox,et al.  Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability , 2018, Nature.

[26]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Estimating Sea Surface Temperature Measurement Methods Using Characteristic Differences in the Diurnal Cycle , 2018 .

[27]  Jian Lu,et al.  The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal Evolution of Climate Sensitivity , 2018 .

[28]  M. Webb,et al.  The Dependence of Global Cloud and Lapse Rate Feedbacks on the Spatial Structure of Tropical Pacific Warming , 2018 .

[29]  S. Häkkinen,et al.  Recent subsurface North Atlantic cooling trend in context of Atlantic decadal-to-multidecadal variability , 2018 .

[30]  B. Stevens.  Reply to “Comments on ‘Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing’” , 2015, Journal of Climate.

[31]  Noel Keenlyside,et al.  The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector , 2018, Climate Dynamics.

[32]  Angeline G. Pendergrass,et al.  Do Southern Ocean Cloud Feedbacks Matter for 21st Century Warming? , 2017 .

[33]  D. Notz,et al.  Consistently Estimating Internal Climate Variability from Climate Model Simulations , 2017 .

[34]  S. Coats,et al.  Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability? , 2017 .

[35]  E. Hawkins,et al.  Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities , 2017 .

[36]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons , 2017 .

[37]  T. Frölicher,et al.  Hiatus‐like decades in the absence of equatorial Pacific cooling and accelerated global ocean heat uptake , 2017 .

[38]  M. Latif,et al.  Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes , 2017 .

[39]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’ , 2017, Nature.

[40]  J. Marotzke,et al.  The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses , 2017 .

[41]  Andrew Gettelman,et al.  The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning , 2017 .

[42]  K. Armour.  Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks , 2017 .

[43]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent , 2017 .

[44]  Stefan Rahmstorf,et al.  Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls , 2017 .

[45]  S. Klein,et al.  Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth/'s energy budget , 2016 .

[46]  W. Hobbs,et al.  Century-scale perspectives on observed and simulated Southern Ocean sea ice trends from proxy reconstructions , 2016 .

[47]  T. Andrews,et al.  Variation in climate sensitivity and feedback parameters during the historical period , 2016 .

[48]  E. Chung,et al.  The Role of the Dry Static Stability for the Recent Change in the Pacific Walker Circulation , 2016 .

[49]  J. Gregory,et al.  Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[50]  R. Bennartz,et al.  Occurrence and trends of eastern and central Pacific El Niño in different reconstructed SST data sets , 2015 .

[51]  Veronika Eyring,et al.  Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization , 2015 .

[52]  B. Stevens,et al.  Eurasian winter cooling in the warming hiatus of 1998–2012 , 2015 .

[53]  T. Frölicher,et al.  Sensitivity of radiative forcing, ocean heat uptake, and climate feedback to changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols , 2015 .

[54]  K.,et al.  The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability , 2015 .

[55]  Andrew C. Parnell,et al.  Change points of global temperature , 2015 .

[56]  I. Richter.  Climate model biases in the eastern tropical oceans: causes, impacts and ways forward , 2015 .

[57]  J. Marotzke,et al.  Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends , 2015, Nature.

[58]  John P. Krasting,et al.  Dominance of the Southern Ocean in Anthropogenic Carbon and Heat Uptake in CMIP5 Models , 2015 .

[59]  Keith B. Rodgers,et al.  Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model , 2014 .

[60]  T. Laepple,et al.  Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model–data differences at decadal and longer periods , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[61]  T. Laepple,et al.  Global and regional variability in marine surface temperatures , 2014 .

[62]  J. Marshall,et al.  Impact of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ocean heat storage and transient climate change , 2014 .

[63]  Nick Rayner,et al.  The Met Office Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature data set, version 2: 1. Sea ice concentrations , 2014 .

[64]  John Kennedy,et al.  A review of uncertainty in in situ measurements and data sets of sea surface temperature , 2014 .

[65]  N. Gillett,et al.  Recent observed and simulated warming , 2014 .

[66]  Masayoshi Ishii,et al.  Centennial-Scale Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and Its Uncertainty , 2014 .

[67]  M. Latif,et al.  Southern Ocean Sector Centennial Climate Variability and Recent Decadal Trends , 2013 .

[68]  Makiko Sato,et al.  Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus , 2013 .

[69]  W. Shaowu,et al.  Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity , 2013 .

[70]  S. Jeffrey,et al.  Australia's CMIP5 submission using the CSIRO-Mk3.6 model , 2013 .

[71]  D. Easterling,et al.  Observations: Atmosphere and surface , 2013 .

[72]  R. Anadón,et al.  Patterns of change in sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic during the last three decades: beyond mean trends , 2012, Climatic Change.

[73]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[74]  Mathew Barlow,et al.  Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends , 2012 .

[75]  R. Colman,et al.  On atmospheric radiative feedbacks associated with climate variability and change , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[76]  K. Hanawa,et al.  Intercomparison of historical sea surface temperature datasets , 2011 .

[77]  S. Brönnimann.  Early twentieth-century warming , 2009 .

[78]  R. Seager,et al.  Forced and Internal Twentieth-Century SST Trends in the North Atlantic* , 2009 .

[79]  S. Rintoul,et al.  The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change , 2008 .

[80]  David L. T. Anderson,et al.  Decadal Climate Variability , 1996 .