Screening out accident-prone Iranian drivers: are their at-fault accidents related to driving behavior

Abstract To provide a scientific background in road safety domain a better understanding of human risk factor is crucial. The aims of the present study were the following: (1) developing an accident prediction model for estimating the at-fault accidents of drivers (2) controlling for the regression-to-the-mean and screening out the accident-prone drivers (3) identification of significant behavioral predictors in at-fault accident occurrences and delving into the relationship between the aberrant driving behaviors and at-fault accidents of those identified as accident-prone. A questionnaire survey compiling various measures of personality type, aberrant driving behavior, demographic and accident history information of 1762 Iranian drivers was conducted in which 1375 male and 387 female participants were of the average age of 35.6 (S.D. = 11.987). To analyze the obtained data, the generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach was taken resulting in four models with various independent variables. The results indicated that age, gender, education level, years of active driving, and especially exposure had an effect on drivers’ at-fault accidents while there was no discernible effect from income level, personality type and area of residence. In the screening procedure, 715 drivers were identified as accident-prone. Behavioral comparison analyses indicated that the lapses, errors, ordinary and aggressive violations are different for the accident-prone drivers. A comparison between the accident-prone and non-accident-prone drivers revealed that the ordinary violations have considerably higher effect than the others on at-fault accidents. Implications of the results are discussed with regard to insurance policies and education interventions.

[1]  M J Maher,et al.  A comprehensive methodology for the fitting of predictive accident models. , 1996, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[2]  Richard Rowe,et al.  Measuring errors and violations on the road: a bifactor modeling approach to the Driver Behavior Questionnaire. , 2015, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[3]  Ayad Bahadorimonfared,et al.  Trends of Fatal Road Traffic Injuries in Iran (2004–2011) , 2013, PloS one.

[4]  Henriette Wallen Warner,et al.  Cross-cultural comparison of drivers’ tendency to commit different aberrant driving behaviours , 2011 .

[5]  A. Manstead,et al.  The Role of Affect in Predicting Social Behaviors: The Case of Road Traffic Violations , 1997 .

[6]  M. Mckay,et al.  Exceeding the speed limit: prevalence and determinants in Iran , 2013, International journal of injury control and safety promotion.

[7]  Ghorbanali Mohammadi,et al.  The pattern of fatalities by age, seat belt usage and time of day on road accidents , 2009, International journal of injury control and safety promotion.

[8]  Georgia Tzamalouka,et al.  Aggressive behavior while driving as predictor of self-reported car crashes. , 2002, Journal of safety research.

[9]  L Li,et al.  Personal and behavioral predictors of automobile crash and injury severity. , 1995, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[10]  Reza Sigari Tabrizi,et al.  The role of human factor in incidence and severity of road crashes based on the CART and LR regression: a data mining approach , 2011, WCIT.

[11]  Chien-Ming Tseng,et al.  Social-demographics, driving experience and yearly driving distance in relation to a tour bus driver's at-fault accident risk , 2012 .

[12]  Heikki Summala,et al.  Cross-cultural differences in driving behaviours: A comparison of six countries , 2006 .

[13]  S Rajalin,et al.  The connection between risky driving and involvement in fatal accidents. , 1994, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[14]  G. L. Johnson,et al.  AGGRESSIVE DRIVING BEHAVIORS: ARE THERE PSYCHOLOGICAL AND ATTITUDINAL PREDICTORS? , 2003 .

[15]  Guangnan Zhang,et al.  Risk factors associated with traffic violations and accident severity in China. , 2013, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[16]  Nebi Sümer,et al.  Personality and behavioral predictors of traffic accidents: testing a contextual mediated model. , 2003, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[17]  Fayyaz ahmed. Siddiqui.  Relationship between the noncompliance behavior at signalized intersection an driver characteristics , 1997 .

[18]  J. H. Steiger.  Tests for comparing elements of a correlation matrix. , 1980 .

[19]  M. Zargar,et al.  Sex and age distribution in transport-related injuries in Tehran. , 2004, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[20]  S Stradling,et al.  Errors and violations on the roads: a real distinction? , 1990, Ergonomics.

[21]  S Stradling,et al.  Behavioural characteristics and involvement in different types of traffic accident. , 1995, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[22]  Montserrat Guillén,et al.  Time and distance to first accident and driving patterns of young drivers with pay-as-you-drive insurance. , 2014, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[23]  T. Rundmo,et al.  Personality, risky driving and accident involvement among Norwegian drivers , 2002 .

[24]  M Hatakka,et al.  Novice drivers' accidents and violations--a failure on higher or lower hierarchical levels of driving behaviour. , 2001, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[25]  Abbas Rahimi Foroushani,et al.  Socioeconomic Status and Incidence of Traffic Accidents in Metropolitan Tehran: A Population-based Study , 2012, International journal of preventive medicine.

[26]  E Hauer,et al.  Estimating the accident potential of an Ontario driver. , 1991, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[27]  Rune Elvik.  The predictive validity of empirical Bayes estimates of road safety. , 2008, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[28]  Chen Zhang,et al.  Effects of Geometric Characteristics on Head-On Crash Incidence on Two-Lane Roads in Connecticut , 2005 .

[29]  Karel Hurts,et al.  Modeling safe and unsafe driving behaviour. , 2008, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[30]  Abolfazl Mohammadzadeh Moghaddam,et al.  Introducing a risk estimation index for drivers: A case of Iran , 2014 .

[31]  Amir Reza Mamdoohi,et al.  Road Traffic Culture and Personality Traits Related to Traffic Safety in Turkish and Iranian Samples , 2014 .

[32]  Nikiforos Stamatiadis,et al.  Crash involvement of drivers with multiple crashes. , 2006, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[33]  Tamitza Toroyan,et al.  Global status report on road safety , 2009, Injury Prevention.

[34]  M. Jessurun,et al.  Annual mileage, driving violations, and accident involvement in relation to drivers' sex, age, and level of education. , 1999, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[35]  Salvatore Cafiso,et al.  Development of comprehensive accident models for two-lane rural highways using exposure, geometry, consistency and context variables. , 2010, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[36]  J T Shope,et al.  Influences on youthful driving behavior and their potential for guiding interventions to reduce crashes , 2006, Injury Prevention.

[37]  Fred L. Mannering,et al.  Negative binomial analysis of intersection accident frequencies , 1996 .

[38]  Dominique Lord,et al.  Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory. , 2005, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[39]  Jing Shi,et al.  Aberrant driving behaviors: a study of drivers in Beijing. , 2010, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[40]  R West,et al.  Mild social deviance, Type-A behaviour pattern and decision-making style as predictors of self-reported driving style and traffic accident risk. , 1993, British journal of psychology.

[41]  Mohamed Abdel-Aty,et al.  Multilevel data and bayesian analysis in traffic safety. , 2010, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[42]  A R Dobbs,et al.  A comparative approach to identify unsafe older drivers. , 1998, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[43]  B. Reimer,et al.  Behavior differences in drivers with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: the driving behavior questionnaire. , 2005, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[44]  Heikki Summala,et al.  The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire: a cross-cultural study. , 2004, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[45]  M A Abdel-Aty,et al.  An assessment of the effect of driver age on traffic accident involvement using log-linear models. , 1998, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[46]  T. Galovski,et al.  ROAD RAGE: A DOMAIN FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL INTERVENTION? , 2004 .

[47]  Nikiforos Stamatiadis,et al.  Evaluation Of Retesting in Kentucky's Driver License Process , 1999 .

[48]  Meyer Friedman,et al.  Type A Behavior and Your Heart , 1974 .

[49]  Ahmed E. Radwan,et al.  Modeling traffic accident occurrence and involvement. , 2000, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[50]  Kavi Bhalla,et al.  Adverse health outcomes of road traffic injuries in Iran after rapid motorization. , 2009, Archives of Iranian medicine.

[51]  A. Cameron,et al.  Regression-based tests for overdispersion in the Poisson model☆ , 1990 .

[52]  Margaret M. Peden,et al.  World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention , 2004 .

[53]  Ali Naderan,et al.  Aggregate crash prediction models: introducing crash generation concept. , 2010, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[54]  Evgueni A. Haroutunian,et al.  Information Theory and Statistics , 2011, International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science.

[55]  V. Rahimi-Movaghar,et al.  Comparison of road traffic fatalities and injuries in Iran with other countries. , 2008, Chinese journal of traumatology = Zhonghua chuang shang za zhi.

[56]  Carol Holland,et al.  The effect of age, gender and driver status on pedestrians' intentions to cross the road in risky situations. , 2007, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[57]  J.C.F. de Winter,et al.  The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of accidents: a meta-analysis. , 2010, Journal of safety research.

[58]  R.Q. Ivers,et al.  Risk and type of crash among young drivers by rurality of residence: findings from the DRIVE Study. , 2009, Accident; analysis and prevention.