Measuring scoring efficiency through goal expectancy estimation

Association football is characterized by the lowest scoring rate of all major sports. A typical value of less than 3 goals per game makes it difficult to find strong effects on goal scoring. Instead of goals, one can focus on the production of shots, increasing the available sample size. However, the value of shots depends heavily on different factors, and it is important to take this variability into account. In this paper, we use a multilayer perceptron to build a goal expectancy model that estimates the conversion probability of shots, and use it to evaluate the scoring performance of Premier League footballers.