The challenges of predicting speeding behaviour in young drivers

The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has been promoted as a theory that predicts behaviour across a variety of domains and has been used with road safety behaviours with some success across a number of years. However the intention-behaviour gap is often an issue. This paper presents the results of a study in semi-rural Western Australia that used the TPB to investigate the speeding behaviour of young drivers. Re-analysis of the data reveals some important lessons that provide useful information for other researchers who wish to investigate this behaviour. Seventy three young drivers in the South West of Western Australia completed TPB questionnaires at two points in time: firstly to establish the underpinnings of intention and expectation to speed, and the second to establish the links between intention, expectation, and behaviour. Between 21.5 and 50 per cent of the variance in intention/ expectation was accounted for. Intention/expectation accounted for 17.4 to 19.2 per cent of the variance in behaviour. Analyses using logistic regression revealed rates of behavioural prediction that were sensitive but not specific and these results fit with Sheeran (2002) description of inclined actors, inclined abstainers, disinclined actors, and disinclined abstainers. The TPB needs refinement to account for increased amounts of variance in intention/ expectation and behaviour for young driver speeding. Theoretical issues are discussed and information to increase the relationships amongst the TPB variables is presented. The analysis provides information to improve prediction of speeding behaviour in young drivers.

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