Modeling Driver Behavior: A Pessimistic Prediction

The motivational, or the “zero-risk” model of Naatanen and Summala essentially stated that the driver tends to satisfy his motives in traffic, pushing him towards faster and more hazardous driving, yet so that he generally does not feel any risk of accident. If we provide the driver better roads and vehicles, why wouldn’t he drive faster as his experience (owing to the motivational, perceptual, learning, and adaptation processes involved) shows that it is not a threat to his safety? The introduction of general speed limits resulted in a radical drop in road fatalities. The speed limits cut off possibilities to use road and vehicle improvements for faster driving and thus they started a favorable development in road safety. This paper first considers the change from skill models to motivational models for driver behavior; secondly it shows how the speed limits really changed the traffic safety trends; thirdly it considers basic mechanisms in driver behavior from the safety point of view; and fourthly it suggests directions for further work in improving road safety.

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