Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports

The relationship between exchange-rate volatility and aggregate export volumes is examined using a model that includes real export earnings of oil-exporting economies as a determinant of export volumes of a sample of 12 industrial countries. Four fixed-coefficient panel-data estimation techniques, including a generalized method of moments (GMM) and random coefficient (RC) estimation, are employed on panel data covering the estimation period 1977:1–2003:4 using three measures of exchange-rate volatility. Our aim is to provide a theoretically and empirically justifiable specification that can guide researchers. In contrast to recent studies employing panel data, we find little evidence that volatility has a negative and significant impact on trade. We use second-generation RC estimation, which corrects for biases arising from incorrect functional forms, omitted variables, and measurement errors. Our results suggest that the finding of a significant and negative impact of volatility is attributable to specification biases.

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