Hypotheses to explain patterns of population change among breeding bird species in England

Abstract Population declines are now evident across many taxa, but within each assemblage there is often considerable variation in constituent population trends. We used bird population trends produced from the BTO/JNCC Common Birds Census (CBC) and the RSPB/BTO/JNCC Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), to test five main hypotheses to explain population changes of 59 breeding species in England (1967–2006): (1) breeding habitat, (2) predation risk to nest sites, (3) species climatic niche, (4) migration strategy, and (5) over-wintering bioclimatic zones of migrants, accounting for additional demographic and ecological traits. In absence of phylogenetic inter-relatedness, farmland species declined more than woodland species, most pronounced prior to 1986, probably reflecting agricultural intensification (1). We found limited support that ground nesters have declined more than above-ground or cavity nesters (2), and there was some indication that species with more northerly European distributions showed larger declines than more southerly-distributed species (3). Larger population declines were recorded for Afro-tropical migrants than species wintering in Europe or in the UK, most notable prior to 1986 (4). However, declines were not uniform across all migrants (5) – species over-wintering in the arid savannah bioclimatic zone of Africa decreased in population between 1967 and 1976, whereas species wintering in humid West African forest and savannah declined more after 1987. These results suggest both breeding and over-wintering factors influenced population trends. European countries signed to the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals are required to protect and conserve populations of migrants. Understanding connectivity between breeding and over-wintering populations, and similar environmental pressures experienced within over-wintering areas may be a useful step towards mitigating against further declines in migrants.

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