Incentive-based load shifting dynamics and aggregators response predictability

Abstract Demand flexibility and its responsiveness under price-based control is a major research field. Much attention has been paid to model demand elasticity as synonymous with demand flexibility. But demand flexibility comes mostly as load shifting, and load shifting dynamics have been neglected when modelling demand response. In this paper, we model load shifting dynamics to simulate aggregate responses and analyse their predictability under time-varying prices. Our experience with simulation is then used to discuss possible enhancements in machine learning capable of predicting aggregate load dynamics.

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