SuMMARY - Soil erosion in the Alpine area: risk assessment and climate change - Objective of the research is to define the magnitude of the Actual Soil Erosion Risk in the Alpine area and to link it with a perspective of medium long terms in relation to climate change. The Revised universal Soil Loss Equation (RuSLE) was applied to the whole Alpine space. It allowed to produce, with a spatial resolution of 100 m, the map of actual soil erosion and two further maps defining soil erosion rates in A2 and B2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC, 2001). This analysis was carried out by means of the dataset the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) of Trieste. It provided daily rainfall values for the years 1960-1990 and for the IPCC A2 and B2 scenario 2070-2100. From a comparison between actual erosion and soil losses in A2 and B2 scenarios, it comes out that our model does not show relevant raises in erosion rates. However, low variations in soil losses rates is observable. In particular, B2 scenario shows a growth of low entity of soil losses over a significant part of the Alpine space. In A2 scenario a clear distinction between northern and southern Alps comes out. The northern part should experience a low reduction of soil erosion, whilst in southern areas a rise of soil losses should take place. RIASSuNTO - Erosione del suolo nell’area alpina: valutazione del rischio e cambiamenti climatici - Il principale obiettivo del presente lavoro e di fornire una stima attuale dell’erosione del suolo in ambiente alpino e al contempo collegarla con i possibili sviluppi a mediolungo termine indotti dai cambiamenti climatici. E stata quindi applicata a tutto l’arco alpino la versione riveduta dell’equazione universale di perdita di suolo (RuSLE). Cio ha permesso di produrre, ad una risoluzione spaziale di 100 m, la mappa dell’erosione del suolo nelle Alpi e due ulteriori mappe relative alle previsioni di erosione del suolo negli scenari A2 e B2 dell’Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC, 2001). Questa analisi e stata condotta grazie ai dati forniti dall’International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) di Trieste. I dati consistono in stime di precipitazione giornaliere per gli anni 1960-1990 e per gli scenari A2 e B2 2070-2100 dell’IPCC. Da un confronto tra l’erosione attuale e le previsioni relative a questi due scenari non emergono rilevanti incrementi di erosione del suolo, sebbene si evidenzi un leggero incremento del fenomeno. In particolare, lo scenario B2 evidenzia un generale lieve aumento dell’erosione del suolo su di un’area significativa del territorio alpino, mentre nello scenario A2 emerge una netta distinzione tra nord e sud delle Alpi: la parte piu a nord appare caratterizzata da una generale riduzione dei fenomeni erosivi (seppure di lieve entita) che invece mostrano un leggero incremento nella parte meridionale dell’arco alpino. Key word: Alps, soil erosion, climate change Parola chiave: Alpi, erosione, cambiamento climatico
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