Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from passenger cars in Europe Laboratory versus real-world emissions

Abstract Official laboratory-measured monitoring data indicate a progressive decline in the average fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of the European passenger car fleet. There is increasing evidence to suggest that officially reported CO2 values do not reflect the actual performance of the vehicles on the road. A reported difference of 30–40% between official values and real-world estimates was found which has been continuously increasing. This paper reviews the influence of different factors that affect fuel consumption and CO2 emissions on the road and in the laboratory. Factors such as driving behaviour, vehicle configuration and traffic conditions are reconfirmed as highly influential. Neglected factors (e.g. side winds, rain, road grade), which may have significant contributions in fuel consumption in real world driving are identified. The margins of the present certification procedure contribute between 10 and 20% in the gap between the reported values and reality. The latter was estimated to be of the order of 40%, or 47.5 gCO2/km for 2015 average fleet emissions, but could range up to 60% or down to 19% depending on prevailing traffic conditions. The introduction of a new test protocol is expected to bridge about half of the present divergence between laboratory and real world. Finally, substantial literature was found on the topic; however, the lack of common test procedures, analysis tools, and coordinated activity across different countries point out the need for additional research in order to support targeted actions for real world CO2 reduction. Quality checks of the CO2 certification procedure, and the reported values, combined with in-use consumption monitoring could be used to assess the gap on a continuous basis.