School Engagement Trajectories and Their Differential Predictive Relations to Dropout

Although most theories draw upon the construct of school engagement in their conceptualization of the dropout process, research addressing its hypothesized prospective relation with dropout remains scarce and does not account for the academic and social heterogeneity of students who leave school prematurely. This study explores the reality of different life-course pathways of school engagement and their predictive relations to dropout. Using an accelerated longitudinal design, we used growth mixture modeling to generate seven distinct trajectories of school engagement with 12- to 16-year-old students (N = 13,300). A vast majority of students were classified into three stable trajectories, distinguishing themselves at moderate to very high levels of school engagement. We refer to these as developmentally normative pathways in light of their frequent occurrence and stability. Although regrouping only one-tenth of participants, four other nonnormative (or unexpected pathways) accounted for the vast majority of dropouts. Dropout risk was closely linked with unstable pathways of school engagement. We conclude by debating the delicate investment balance between universal strategies and more selective and differentiated strategies to prevent dropout. We also discuss the need to better understand why, within normative trajectories, some students with high levels of school engagement drop out of school.

[1]  L.M. Tesseneer.  Review of the Literature on School Dropouts , 1958 .

[2]  Jeffrey W. Bowlby,et al.  At a Crossroads: First Results for the 18 to 20-Year-old Cohort of the Youth in Transition Survey. , 2002 .

[3]  R. Tremblay,et al.  Disentangling the Weight of School Dropout Predictors: A Test on Two Longitudinal Samples , 1997 .

[4]  Richard E. Tremblay,et al.  Predicting different types of school dropouts: A typological approach with two longitudinal samples. , 2000 .

[5]  L. Feinstein,et al.  Unexpected Pathways Through Education: Why Do Some Students Not Succeed in School and What Helps Others Beat the Odds? , 2008, The Journal of social issues.

[6]  Joseph L Schafer,et al.  Analysis of Incomplete Multivariate Data , 1997 .

[7]  Jennifer A. Fredricks,et al.  School Engagement: Potential of the Concept, State of the Evidence , 2004 .

[8]  L. Wasserman,et al.  A Reference Bayesian Test for Nested Hypotheses and its Relationship to the Schwarz Criterion , 1995 .

[9]  Dana L. Haynie,et al.  Student mobility and school dropout , 2007 .

[10]  K. Schonert-Reichl,et al.  Social motivation: Academic failure and school dropout: The influence of peers , 1996 .

[11]  Mm. Liabre.  Standard Progressive Matrices , 1984 .

[12]  Bengt Muthén,et al.  Second-generation structural equation modeling with a combination of categorical and continuous latent variables: New opportunities for latent class–latent growth modeling. , 2001 .

[13]  Martha Thurlow,et al.  School Dropouts , 2004 .

[14]  D. Entwisle,et al.  From First Grade Forward: Early Foundations of High School Dropout. , 1997 .

[15]  C. Midgley,et al.  Development during adolescence. The impact of stage-environment fit on young adolescents' experiences in schools and in families. , 1993, The American psychologist.

[16]  T. Dishion,et al.  When interventions harm. Peer groups and problem behavior. , 1999, The American psychologist.

[17]  Daniel S. Nagin,et al.  Analyzing developmental trajectories: A semiparametric, group-based approach , 1999 .

[18]  Geoffrey J. McLachlan,et al.  Finite Mixture Models , 2019, Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application.

[19]  G J McLachlan,et al.  Mixture modelling for cluster analysis , 2004, Statistical methods in medical research.

[20]  Valerie E. Lee,et al.  Dropping Out of High School: The Role of School Organization and Structure , 2003 .

[21]  R B Cairns,et al.  Early school dropout: configurations and determinants. , 1989, Child development.

[22]  L. Bergman,et al.  The Person-Oriented Versus the Variable-Oriented Approach: Are They Complementary, Opposites, or Exploring Different Worlds? , 2006 .

[23]  W. Collins,et al.  Exceptions to High School Dropout Predictions in a Low-Income Sample: Do Adults Make a Difference? , 2008, The Journal of social issues.

[24]  J. Finn.  Withdrawing From School , 1989 .

[25]  L. Pulkkinen,et al.  Trajectories Based on Postcomprehensive and Higher Education: Their Correlates and Antecedents , 2008 .

[26]  Andrea Honigsfeld,et al.  High School Male and Female Learning-Style Similarities and Differences in Diverse Nations , 2003 .

[27]  Matt McGue,et al.  Genetic and environmental influences on academic achievement trajectories during adolescence. , 2006, Developmental psychology.

[28]  Dante Cicchetti,et al.  Equifinality and multifinality in developmental psychopathology , 1996, Development and Psychopathology.

[29]  D. Nagin,et al.  Trajectories of Prosocial Behavior and Physical Aggression in Middle Childhood: Links to Adolescent School Dropout and Physical Violence , 2006 .

[30]  Nathan R. Kuncel,et al.  The Validity of Self-Reported Grade Point Averages, Class Ranks, and Test Scores: A Meta-Analysis and Review of the Literature , 2005 .

[31]  Stephanie T. Lanza,et al.  Changes in children's self-competence and values: gender and domain differences across grades one through twelve. , 2002, Child development.

[32]  M. Rutter.  Nature, nurture, and development: from evangelism through science toward policy and practice. , 2002, Child development.

[33]  J. Heckman.  Skill Formation and the Economics of Investing in Disadvantaged Children , 2006, Science.

[34]  Jessica L. Garrett,et al.  Causes and Consequences of Unexpected Educational Transitions in Switzerland , 2008 .

[35]  M. Ensminger,et al.  School leaving: a longitudinal perspective including neighborhood effects. , 1996, Child development.