Modeling Long-Term Risk to Environmental and Human Systems at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation: Scope and Findings from the Initial Model

The Groundwater Protection Project at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in Washington State is currently developing the means to assess the cumulative impact to human and ecological health and the regional economy and cultures from radioactive and chemical waste that will remain at the Hanford Site after the site closes. This integrated system is known as the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The SAC Risk/Impact Module discussed in the article uses media- and time-specific concentrations of contaminants estimated by the transport models of the integrated system to project potential impacts on the ecology of the Columbia River corridor, the health of persons who might live in or use the corridor or the upland Hanford environment, the local economy, and cultural resources. Preliminary Monte Carlo realizations from the SAC modeling system demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale uncertainty analysis of the complex relationships in the environmental transport of contaminants on the one hand and ecological, human, cultural, and economic risk on the other. Initial impact results show very small long-term risks for the 10 radionuclides and chemicals evaluated. The analysis also helps determine science priorities to reduce uncertainty and suggests what actions matter to reduce risks.

[1]  David W. Engel,et al.  Uncertainty in integrated assessment models: modeling with MiniCAM 1.0 , 1999 .

[2]  Carolien Kroeze,et al.  Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment models: A review of recent approaches , 2002 .

[3]  S. O. Link,et al.  Valuation of Ecological Resources and Functions , 1998, Environmental management.

[4]  M. I. Westinghouse Hanford Wood.  Performance assessment for the disposal of low-level waste in the 200 east area burial grounds , 1996 .

[5]  W. Viscusi,et al.  The value of risks to life and health , 1993 .

[6]  U. S. Congress.  The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act, 1970 to 1990 , 1997 .

[7]  G Schwarz,et al.  Parameter uncertainty and estimated radiological dose to man from atmospheric 131I releases: a Monte Carlo approach. , 1981, Health physics.

[8]  P. D. Rittmann,et al.  Performance assessment for the disposal of low-level waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds , 1995 .

[9]  James Saling,et al.  Radioactive Waste Management , 1990 .

[10]  R. Iman,et al.  A distribution-free approach to inducing rank correlation among input variables , 1982 .

[11]  R. O'Neill,et al.  The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital , 1997, Nature.

[12]  John P. Weyant,et al.  Approaches for performing uncertainty analysis in large-scale energy/economic policy models , 2000 .

[13]  R. O'Neill,et al.  The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital , 1997, Nature.

[14]  Paul W. Eslinger,et al.  An Initial Assessment of Hanford Impact Performed with the System Assessment Capability , 2002 .

[15]  F. M. Mann.  Hanford Immobilized Low Activity Waste (ILAW) Performance Assessment 2001 Version [Formerly DOE/RL-97-69] [SEC 1 & 2] , 2000 .

[16]  W. Nordhaus,et al.  Nature's numbers : expanding the national economic accounts to include the environment , 1999 .

[17]  Joseph E. Aldy,et al.  The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates Throughout the World , 2003 .

[18]  F. O. Hoffman,et al.  Uses of Probabilistic Exposure Models in Ecological Risk Assessments of Contaminated Sites , 1994 .

[19]  William H. Desvousges,et al.  Environmental Policy Analysis With Limited Information: Principles and Applications of the Transfer Method , 1999 .

[20]  O. Davidson,et al.  Climate change 2001 : mitigation , 2001 .

[21]  Mary J. Hartman,et al.  Hanford Site Groundwater Monitoring for Fiscal Year 2000 , 2001 .