Improving an Urban Cellular Automata Model Based on Auto-Calibrated and Trend-Adjusted Neighborhood

Accurately simulating urban expansion is of great significance for promoting sustainable urban development. The calculation of neighborhood effects is an important factor that affects the accuracy of urban expansion models. The purpose of this study is to improve the calculation of neighborhood effects in an urban expansion model, i.e., the land-use scenario dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model, by integrating the trend-adjusted neighborhood algorithm and the automatic rule detection procedure. Taking eight sample cities in China as examples, we evaluated the accuracies of the original model and the improved model. We found that the improved model can increase the accuracy of simulated urban expansion in terms of both the degree of spatial matching and the similarity of urban form. The increase of accuracy can be attributed to such integration comprehensively considers the effects of historical urban expansion trends and the influences of neighborhoods at different scales. Therefore, the improved model in this study can be widely used to simulate the process of urban expansion in different regions.

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