Utilizing the Social and Behavioral Sciences to Assess, Model, Forecast and Preemptively Respond to Terrorism

To stay ahead of the terrorist threat curve, we need to utilize leading edge and innovative conceptual methodologies and software-based systems that are grounded in the social and behavioral sciences. It is by means of theoretically grounded, conceptually precise, methodologically rigorous, and analytically oriented research that we can attain the capability to fully understand the underlying conditions that give rise to terrorist insurgencies and the measures required to contain such threats. Such a comprehensive and multidisciplinary approach will enable us to understand how to assess, model, forecast and preemptively respond to current and future terrorist threats. Some of these leading edge methodologies and software systems may already be available – although not yet applied to the terrorism/combating terrorism discipline – while others may yet to be developed. To achieve the capability required to win the war on terrorism, we must first substantially improve and strengthen our social and behavioral scientific baseline understanding of all the root causes underlying the terrorist-based conflicts, as well as the organizational formations, nodes and linkages involved in how terrorists operate and conduct warfare.