Integrated Assessment Modelling of Future Air Quality in the UK to 2050 and Synergies with Net-Zero Strategies

Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) has been successfully used in the development of international agreements to reduce transboundary pollution in Europe, based on the GAINS model of IIASA. At a national level in the UK, a similar approach has been taken with the UK Integrated Assessment Model, UKIAM, superimposing pollution abatement measures and behavioural change on energy projections designed to meet targets set for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and allowing for natural and imported contributions from other countries and shipping. This paper describes how the UKIAM was used in the development of proposed targets for the reduction of fine particulate PM2.5 in the UK Environment Act, exploring scenarios encompassing different levels of ambition in reducing the emissions of air pollutants up to 2050, with associated health and other environmental benefits. There are two PM2.5 targets, an annual mean concentration target setting a maximum concentration to be reached by a future year, and a population exposure reduction target with benefits for health across the whole population. The work goes further, also demonstrating links to social deprivation. There is a strong connection between climate measures aimed at reducing net GHG emissions to zero by 2050 and future air quality, which may be positive or negative, as illustrated by sectoral studies for road transport where electrification of the fleet needs to match the evolution of energy production, and for domestic heating, where the use of wood for heating is an air quality issue. The UKIAM has been validated against air pollution measurements and other types of modelling, but there are many uncertainties, including future energy projections.

[1]  R. Alvarez,et al.  Identifying Patterns and Sources of Fine and Ultrafine Particulate Matter in London Using Mobile Measurements of Lung-Deposited Surface Area , 2022, Environmental science & technology.

[2]  H. ApSimon,et al.  Reduced-form and complex ACTM modelling for air quality policy development: A model inter-comparison. , 2022, Environment international.

[3]  H. ApSimon,et al.  An exceedance score for the assessment of the impact of nitrogen deposition on habitats in the UK , 2022, Environ. Model. Softw..

[4]  H. ApSimon,et al.  Electrification of Road Transport and the Impacts on Air Quality and Health in the UK , 2021, Atmosphere.

[5]  R. Harrison,et al.  Non-exhaust vehicle emissions of particulate matter and VOC from road traffic: A review , 2021 .

[6]  S. Dimitroulopoulou,et al.  Systemic inequalities in indoor air pollution exposure in London, UK , 2021, Buildings & cities.

[7]  H. ApSimon,et al.  The UK Integrated Assessment Model for source apportionment and air pollution policy applications to PM2.5. , 2021, Environment international.

[8]  Tim. Chatterton,et al.  Emissions vs exposure: Increasing injustice from road traffic-related air pollution in the United Kingdom , 2019, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment.

[9]  S Vardoulakis,et al.  Modelling public health improvements as a result of air pollution control policies in the UK over four decades—1970 to 2010 , 2019, Environmental Research Letters.

[10]  M. Heal,et al.  Advanced methods for uncertainty assessment and global sensitivity analysis of an Eulerian atmospheric chemistry transport model , 2018, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[11]  P. Wilkinson,et al.  Socioeconomic and urban-rural differentials in exposure to air pollution and mortality burden in England , 2017, Environmental Health.

[12]  P. Wilkinson,et al.  Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies , 2017 .

[13]  Stefan Reis,et al.  Modelling carbonaceous aerosol from residential solid fuel burning with different assumptions for emissions , 2017 .

[14]  S. Herndon,et al.  Simulating secondary organic aerosol from missing diesel-related intermediate-volatility organic compound emissions during the Clean Air for London (ClearfLo) campaign , 2016 .

[15]  M. Heal,et al.  The UK particulate matter air pollution episode of March–April 2014: more than Saharan dust , 2016 .

[16]  M. Heal,et al.  The sensitivities of emissions reductions for the mitigation of UK PM 2.5 , 2016 .

[17]  M. Heal,et al.  The role of long-range transport and domestic emissions in determining atmospheric secondary inorganic particle concentrations across the UK , 2013 .

[18]  Helen ApSimon,et al.  Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM). , 2013, Environment international.

[19]  M. Gauß,et al.  The EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model -- technical description , 2012 .

[20]  Tim Oxley,et al.  Background, Road and Urban Transport modelling of Air quality Limit values (The BRUTAL model) , 2009, Environ. Model. Softw..

[21]  M. Heal,et al.  Modelling surface ozone during the 2003 heat-wave in the UK , 2008 .

[22]  Mark A. Sutton,et al.  Modelling the atmospheric transport and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen over the United Kingdom and assessment of the influence of SO2 emissions from international shipping , 2007 .

[23]  Mark A. Sutton,et al.  Modelling the deposition of atmospheric oxidised nitrogen and sulphur to the United Kingdom using a multi-layer long-range transport model , 2004 .

[24]  Mark A. Sutton,et al.  A multi-layer model to describe the atmospheric transport and deposition of ammonia in Great Britain , 1998 .

[25]  R. Derwent,et al.  Modelling secondary organic aerosol in the United Kingdom , 2013 .