Københavns Universitet Future vegetation-climate interactions in Eastern Siberia: an assessment of the competing effects of CO2 and secondary organic aerosols

Disproportional warming in the northern high latitudes and large carbon stocks in boreal and (sub)arctic ecosystems have raised concerns as to whether substantial positive climate feedbacks from biogeochemical process responses should be expected. Such feedbacks occur when increasing temperatures lead, for example, to a net release of CO2 or CH4. However, temperature-enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been shown to contribute to the growth of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), which is known to have a negative radiative climate effect. Combining measurements in Eastern Siberia with model-based estimates of vegetation and permafrost dynamics, BVOC emissions, and aerosol growth, we assess here possible future changes in ecosystem CO2 balance and BVOC–SOA interactions and discuss these changes in terms of possible climate effects. Globally, the effects of changes in Siberian ecosystem CO2 balance and SOA formation are small, but when concentrating on Siberia and the Northern Hemisphere the negative forcing from changed aerosol direct and indirect effects become notable – even though the associated temperature response would not necessarily follow a similar spatial pattern. While our analysis does not include other important processes that are of relevance for the climate system, the CO2 and BVOC–SOA interplay serves as an example for the complexity of the interactions between emissions and vegetation dynamics that underlie individual terrestrial processes and highlights the importance of addressing ecosystem–climate feedbacks in consistent, process-based model frameworks.

[1]  J. Rinne,et al.  Annual cycle of volatile organic compound exchange between a boreal pine forest and the atmosphere , 2015 .

[2]  D. Worsnop,et al.  Production of extremely low volatile organic compounds from biogenic emissions: Measured yields and atmospheric implications , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[3]  H. Shugart,et al.  Forest forecasting with vegetation models across Russia1 , 2015 .

[4]  Gabriele Curci,et al.  The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models , 2014, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

[5]  Benjamin Smith,et al.  Biogeophysical feedbacks enhance the Arctic terrestrial carbon sink in regional Earth system dynamics , 2014 .

[6]  T. Petäjä,et al.  Trends in atmospheric new-particle formation: 16 years of observations in a boreal-forest environment , 2014 .

[7]  Hui Wan,et al.  Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol–climate model intercomparison studies , 2014 .

[8]  K. Schaefer,et al.  The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate , 2014 .

[9]  H. Kjaergaard,et al.  A large source of low-volatility secondary organic aerosol , 2014, Nature.

[10]  N. Saigusa,et al.  Long-term measurement of terpenoid flux above a Larix kaempferi forest using a relaxed eddy accumulation method , 2014 .

[11]  G. Mann,et al.  Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing , 2013, Nature.

[12]  J. Lelieveld,et al.  Observation and modelling of HOx radicals in a boreal forest , 2013 .

[13]  A. Arneth,et al.  Terpenoid emissions from fully grown east Siberian Larix cajanderi trees , 2013 .

[14]  Erik Swietlicki,et al.  Warming-induced increase in aerosol number concentration likely to moderate climate change , 2013 .

[15]  Joshua P. Schimel,et al.  Long-term warming restructures Arctic tundra without changing net soil carbon storage , 2013, Nature.

[16]  A. Arneth,et al.  BVOC-aerosol-climate interactions in the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5.5-HAM2 , 2012 .

[17]  Benjamin Smith,et al.  Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections , 2012 .

[18]  U. Lohmann,et al.  The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM, version 2: sensitivity to improvements in process representations , 2012 .

[19]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Global air quality and climate. , 2012, Chemical Society reviews.

[20]  A. Arneth,et al.  Future challenges of representing land-processes in studies on land-atmosphere interactions , 2012 .

[21]  Benjamin Smith,et al.  Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming , 2012, AMBIO.

[22]  Steven F. Oberbauer,et al.  Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming. , 2012 .

[23]  H. Hakola,et al.  Chemodiversity of a Scots pine stand and implications for terpene air concentrations , 2012 .

[24]  V. Brovkin,et al.  Estimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming , 2012 .

[25]  Thomas Giesecke,et al.  Projecting the future distribution of European potential natural vegetation zones with a generalized, tree species-based dynamic vegetation model , 2012 .

[26]  A. Arneth.  Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system: from past to future , 2011 .

[27]  K. Tsigaridis,et al.  Estimating the direct and indirect effects of secondary organic aerosols using ECHAM5-HAM , 2011 .

[28]  P. Ciais,et al.  Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[29]  C. N. Hewitt,et al.  Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: Sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation , 2011 .

[30]  K. Lehtinen,et al.  Sub-10 nm particle growth by vapor condensation – effects of vapor molecule size and particle thermal speed , 2010 .

[31]  F. Woodward,et al.  Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model caused by ecological scale limitations. , 2010, The New phytologist.

[32]  A. Arneth,et al.  The leaf-level emission factor of volatile isoprenoids: caveats, model algorithms, response shapes and scaling , 2010 .

[33]  Vladimir E. Romanovsky,et al.  Thermal state of permafrost in Russia , 2010 .

[34]  Josep Peñuelas,et al.  BVOCs and global change. , 2010, Trends in plant science.

[35]  G. Mann,et al.  A review of natural aerosol interactions and feedbacks within the Earth system , 2010 .

[36]  David Frank,et al.  Timing and duration of European larch growing season along altitudinal gradients in the Swiss Alps. , 2010, Tree physiology.

[37]  A. Arneth,et al.  Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system , 2010 .

[38]  Pierre Friedlingstein,et al.  Terrestrial nitrogen feedbacks may accelerate future climate change , 2010 .

[39]  A. Arneth,et al.  European emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes from the Last Glacial Maximum to present , 2009 .

[40]  A. Arneth,et al.  Mountain birch - potentially large source of sesquiterpenes into high latitude atmosphere , 2009 .

[41]  I. Prentice,et al.  Integrating peatlands and permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 1. Evaluation and sensitivity of physical land surface processes , 2009 .

[42]  P. Hari,et al.  Day-time concentrations of biogenic volatile organic compounds in a boreal forest canopy and their relation to environmental and biological factors , 2009 .

[43]  John H. Seinfeld,et al.  The formation, properties and impact of secondary organic aerosol: current and emerging issues , 2009 .

[44]  J. Canadell,et al.  Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region , 2009 .

[45]  T. E. Osterkamp,et al.  The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra , 2009, Nature.

[46]  A. Arneth,et al.  Process-based modelling of biogenic monoterpene emissions combining production and release from storage , 2009 .

[47]  K. Carslaw,et al.  Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate , 2008, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[48]  A. Arneth,et al.  BVOC ecosystem flux measurements at a high latitude wetland site , 2008 .

[49]  M. Molen,et al.  Interannual variation of water balance and summer evapotranspiration in an eastern Siberian larch forest over a 7-year period (1998-2006) , 2008 .

[50]  Benjamin Smith,et al.  Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space , 2008 .

[51]  S. Sitch,et al.  The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics: coupling fire into a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model , 2008 .

[52]  Jean-Francois Lamarque,et al.  Multimodel projections of climate change from short‐lived emissions due to human activities , 2008 .

[53]  P. Ciais,et al.  Vulnerability of east Siberia's frozen carbon stores to future warming , 2008 .

[54]  Richard H. W. Bradshaw,et al.  Exploring climatic and biotic controls on Holocene vegetation change in Fennoscandia , 2008 .

[55]  G. Mann,et al.  Contribution of particle formation to global cloud condensation nuclei concentrations , 2008 .

[56]  A. Arneth,et al.  Aerosol particle formation events and analysis of high growth rates observed above a subarctic wetland–forest mosaic , 2008 .

[57]  A. Arneth,et al.  Effects of species composition, land surface cover, CO2 concentration and climate on isoprene emissions from European forests. , 2008, Plant biology.

[58]  K. Ranson,et al.  Evidence of Evergreen Conifer Invasion into Larch Dominated Forests During Recent Decades in Central Siberia , 2007 .

[59]  N. Nakicenovic,et al.  Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization , 2007 .

[60]  Benjamin Smith,et al.  CO2 inhibition of global terrestrial isoprene emissions: Potential implications for atmospheric chemistry , 2007 .

[61]  H. Hakola,et al.  Volatile organic compound emissions from Siberian larch , 2007 .

[62]  C. Huntingford,et al.  Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink , 2007, Nature.

[63]  U. Lohmann,et al.  Cloud microphysics and aerosol indirect effects in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM , 2007 .

[64]  Paul W. Stackhouse,et al.  Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations , 2007 .

[65]  P. Hari,et al.  Process-based estimates of terrestrial ecosystem isoprene emissions: incorporating the effects of a direct CO 2 -isoprene interaction , 2007 .

[66]  S. Nilsson,et al.  Russian Forests and Forestry , 2007 .

[67]  P. Ciais,et al.  Effect of climate and CO2 changes on the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the past two decades , 2006 .

[68]  S. Haapanala,et al.  Boundary layer concentrations and landscape scale emissions of volatile organic compounds in early spring , 2006 .

[69]  Tami C. Bond,et al.  Emissions of primary aerosol and precursor gases in the years 2000 and 1750 prescribed data-sets for AeroCom , 2006 .

[70]  Franz Rohrer,et al.  Strong correlation between levels of tropospheric hydroxyl radicals and solar ultraviolet radiation , 2006, Nature.

[71]  John H. Seinfeld,et al.  Global secondary organic aerosol from isoprene oxidation , 2006 .

[72]  H. Hansson,et al.  High Natural Aerosol Loading over Boreal Forests , 2006, Science.

[73]  H. Hakola,et al.  Seasonal variation of mono- and sesquiterpene emission rates of Scots pine , 2005 .

[74]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high‐resolution grids , 2005 .

[75]  P. Paatero,et al.  Evaluation of an automatic algorithm for fitting the particle number size distributions , 2005 .

[76]  M. Waterloo,et al.  Net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and water of far eastern Siberian Larch (Larix cajanderii) on permafrost , 2004 .

[77]  J. Wilson,et al.  M7: An efficient size‐resolved aerosol microphysics module for large‐scale aerosol transport models , 2004 .

[78]  Pasi Aalto,et al.  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics on the Growth of Nucleation Mode Particles: Source Rates of Condensable Vapor in Polluted and Clean Environments , 2022 .

[79]  O. Boucher,et al.  The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM , 2004 .

[80]  S. Rambal,et al.  How growth conditions affect the capacity of Quercus ilex leaves to emit monoterpenes , 2003 .

[81]  T. Ohta,et al.  Seasonal variation in the energy and water exchanges above and below a larch forest in eastern Siberia , 2001 .

[82]  J. M. Mäkelä,et al.  On the formation, growth and composition of nucleation mode particles , 2001 .

[83]  S. Rambal,et al.  Intraspecific variability of monoterpene composition emitted by Quercus ilex leaves , 2001 .

[84]  R. Betts.  Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo , 2000, Nature.

[85]  W. Oechel,et al.  Observational Evidence of Recent Change in the Northern High-Latitude Environment , 2000 .

[86]  J. Tenhunen,et al.  A model of isoprene emission based on energetic requirements for isoprene synthesis and leaf photosynthetic properties for Liquidambar and Quercus , 1999 .

[87]  R. K. Dixon,et al.  Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change , 1998 .

[88]  V. Wagner,et al.  Analysis of a Russian Landscape Map and Landscape Classification for Use in Computer-aided Forestry Research , 1997 .

[89]  E. Schulze,et al.  Vulnerability and adaptation of the larch forest in eastern Siberia to climate change , 1996, Water, Air, and Soil Pollution.

[90]  C. N. Hewitt,et al.  A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions , 1995 .

[91]  S S I T C H,et al.  Evaluation of Ecosystem Dynamics, Plant Geography and Terrestrial Carbon Cycling in the Lpj Dynamic Global Vegetation Model , 2022 .