Heat Waves in Italy: Cause Specific Mortality and the Role of Educational Level and Socio-Economic Conditions

Record temperatures were observed across Europe during the summer of 2003. Th ere is debate among experts as to whether the high temperatures observed in recent years are a normal fl uctuation in the climate or a sign of global warming characterized by wider temperature variations and an increase in climate extremes. Th e full impact of climate change on health still remains unclear, and an accurate analysis and quantifi cation of the possible eff ects, both in the short and long term, still has to be carried out (1,2). Although interest on the impact of heat on mortality is increasing, it is clear from summer 2003 that most European countries were unprepared to cope with this emergency. Th e relationship between weather, temperature and health has been well documented throughout the literature, both during the winter and summer seasons. Th e relationship between mortality and temperature graphically presents a “U” or “V” shape, with mortality rates lowest when the average temperature ranges between 15 – 25 °C and rising progressively as temperatures increase or decrease. In relation to hot weather and the eff ects of high temperatures on mortality, the literature has concentrated on the eff ect of extreme temperatures, oft en denoted as “heat waves”, which are known to enhance deaths from cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory conditions (3,4). Th e increased frequency and intensity of heat waves may lead to an increase in heat-related deaths with the greatest impact on urban populations, particularly the elderly and the ill. Th e report presents an evaluation of the health impact of heat waves recorded during the summer of 2003 (June 1st – August 31st) in three major Italian cities (Rome, Milan and Turin). Th e analysis aims to analyse the impact of heat waves on cause-specifi c mortality and to analyse the role of demographic characteristics and socio-economic conditions that may increase the risk of mortality.