Uncertainty in decision-making: An abductive perspective

Abstract Many decisions involve uncertainty, yet most decision support systems (DSSs) and expert systems (ESs) are poorly equipped to deal with such problems. This paper employs an abductive perspective to propose a prototype framework for tackling uncertainty handling in DSS and ES. Five major features of such a framework, a user-friendly dialogue, a case-base, a knowledge-base, approximate reasoning and a fuzzification/defuzzification mechanism are presented and developed. These are supported by an extended example.

[1]  L. A. Zedeh.  Knowledge representation in fuzzy logic , 1989 .

[2]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  The Concepts of a Linguistic Variable and its Application to Approximate Reasoning , 1975 .

[3]  Chuen-Chien Lee.  FUZZY LOGIC CONTROL SYSTEMS: FUZZY LOGIC CONTROLLER - PART I , 1990 .

[4]  Ebrahim H. Mamdani,et al.  Fuzzy sets and applications: selected papers by L A Zadeh, R R Yager, S Ovchinikov, R M Tong, H T Nguyen (eds) John Wiley and Sons Inc, £45.85, ISBN 0 471 85710 6, 684pp , 1988, Knowl. Based Syst..

[5]  Andrew B. Whinston,et al.  Developments in Decision Support Systems , 1984, Adv. Comput..

[6]  James F. Baldwin,et al.  Evidential support logic, FRIL and case based reasoning , 1993, Int. J. Intell. Syst..

[7]  A. Tversky,et al.  Causal Schemata in Judgments under Uncertainty , 1982 .

[8]  Janet L. Kolodner,et al.  Improving Human Decision Making through Case-Based Decision Aiding , 1991, AI Mag..

[9]  Elizabeth C. Hirschman,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[10]  Christopher K. Riesbeck,et al.  Inside Case-Based Reasoning , 1989 .

[11]  Rita Almeida Ribeiro,et al.  Fuzzy Reasoning by Case for Decision Support Systems , 1994, Int. J. Uncertain. Fuzziness Knowl. Based Syst..

[12]  Janet L. Kolodner,et al.  Case-Based Reasoning , 1989, IJCAI 1989.

[13]  D. Dubois,et al.  FUZZY LOGICS AND THE GENERALIZED MODUS PONENS REVISITED , 1984 .

[14]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  Fuzzy Sets , 1996, Inf. Control..

[15]  James A. Reggia,et al.  Relationships Between Deductive and Abductive Inference in Knowledge-Based Diagnostic Problem Solving , 1984, Expert Database Workshop.

[16]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  A Theory of Approximate Reasoning , 1979 .

[18]  Efraim Turban,et al.  Decision support and expert systems , 1993 .

[19]  H. Raghav Rao,et al.  Technology transfer: making expert systems commercially successful , 1992, IEEE Expert.

[20]  J. Baldwin.  Support Logic Programming , 1986 .

[21]  James F. Baldwin,et al.  Partial matching in fuzzy image recognition , 1991, [1991] Proceedings of the IEEE/ACM International Conference on Developing and Managing Expert System Programs.

[22]  James F. Baldwin,et al.  Evidential support logic programming , 1987 .

[23]  L. Zadeh,et al.  Fuzzy sets and applications : selected papers , 1987 .